Updated RBC Heritage 2022 Odds & 7 Picks for Daniel Berger, Russell Henley, More

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We’re back on the PGA TOUR this week, going from Augusta National to Harbour Town for the 2022 RBC Heritage.

A very strong field has made its way to Hilton Head this week, including five players who were among the favorites last week at the Masters. Justin Thomas is favored, although the likes of Collin Morikawa, Cameron Smith, Dustin Johnson and Patrick Cantlay aren’t far behind him.

Harbour Town is a second-shot course (you’ll hear that often on TOUR), but its smaller greens create an even greater need for precision.

Our GolfBet staff has taken that into account this week and selected some of the world’s best iron players for its best bets. Check out their favorite picks for the RBC Heritage below.

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Best Bets

Matthew NeSmith — Top-20 (+550)

Jason Sobel: The truth is, for my best bet of the week, I was looking at Corey Conners for a top-five (+600) or Maverick McNealy for a top-10 (+450), but I’d rather go after NeSmith at a similar number with more room for error as a top-20 play.

NeSmith ranks 77th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee this season and 33rd in on approach shots, the latter of which is a vital metric on one of the PGA TOUR’s most confined venues. That’s hardly the only reason to play him here, though.

When I spoke with him on “Hitting the Green,” my show on SiriusXM PGA TOUR Radio a few weeks ago, the South Carolina native admitted that if he was picking himself anywhere, it would be at this event. Armed with some confidence after contending for a win last month at the Valspar Championship, don’t be surprised if NeSmith gets himself into a similar spot this week.

Alex Noren — Top 10 (+550)

Chris Murphy: I seem to put Noren in this spot a lot this year, and he’s posting some very strong finishes despite the bet not paying off yet. I’m going back this week in part because it is a good fit for him, and also because this number is off from the rest of the market that has him in the +400 range for this type of finish.

Noren has three top-12 finishes in his last five starts and is coming into a week where he has never missed the cut and posted three top-30 finishes. Those top-30s aren’t anything great, but combined with his fantastic recent form I believe he is set for a big week. I’ll be betting the Swede all the way up the board this week and this might be the spot where he finally breaks through and really contends for a win.

Tommy Fleetwood — Top-20 (+230)

Landon Silinsky: Very quietly, Fleetwood has had a bit of a resurgence of late. Since his missed cut at the Honda Classic, he's gone T20, T22, T16 and most recently T14 at Augusta. His rolling numbers back that up as well, as the Englishman ranks 22nd in this field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and 13th in Strokes Gained: Total over his previous 12 rounds.

The Englishman gained 4.33 strokes off the tee at the Masters, which ranked third in the field behind only Shane Lowry and Matt Fitzpatrick. In two starts at Harbour Town, Fleetwood has a T25 and a MC (last year) to his record, however the missed cut came directly on the number and he even shot a second-round 65.

It's been about two years since we've seen Fleetwood at his best, but he seems to be getting back to his old form and getting +230 in this spot for a T20 – something he’s done in three of his previous four starts – is some pretty nice value.

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Daniel Berger — Top 5, Sungjae Im — Top 10 and Tyrrell Hatton — Top 20 (+10000)

Rob Bolton: I went 3-for-4 in the similar parlay with cascading finishes at the Masters — thanks for nothin’, Viktor Hovland, who finished T27 when his goal was a top-10 — so I’m feelin’ it again at Harbour Town.

Berger, Im and Hatton are three guys who never have been in my kitchen, but all three are in my Power Rankings at PGATOUR.com. Berger’s target is the mountain, obviously, but he has the shortest odds on FanDuel’s board of top-5s for individual finishes at +200. Sure, that’s a reflection of early betting and the house wanting to keep its door open, but he still deserves it.

Berger popped for a T3 here in June 2020, and he has a pair of top-5s in 2022. Those results exemplify his form in general since he launched into the Return to Golf with victory at Colonial the week before the 2020 RBC Heritage. (He’s 4-for-4 in the tournament.)

You’ll find this bet in Golf Specials 4 at FanDuel. In what has evolved into my favorite section of all the boards, my 1a is a similar parlay in Golf Specials 3. It kicks back +2900 for Justin Thomas (top 5), Patrick Cantlay (top 10) and Matt Fitzpatrick (top 20).

Daniel Berger +3500

Matt Vincenzi: At times, golf can be an incredibly difficult sport to predict. With a wide range of potential outcomes in every tournament, narrowing down the winner is never an easy task. With that being acknowledged, Daniel Berger’s success has been somewhat predictable in the past.

All four of Berger’s PGA TOUR victories have come at relatively short courses. TPC Southwind (two wins), Colonial Country Club, and Pebble Beach Golf Links all don’t require great distance off the tee and reward sharp iron play. In his past 36 rounds, the Florida State University product ranks first in the field in courses that are under 7,200 yards. Harbour Town Golf Links fits that description as it is a par 71 measuring 7,121 yards.

Unsurprisingly, Berger has excelled in Hilton Head in the past, with a 13th-place finish last year and third in 2020. At a course with the second-smallest greens on TOUR, spectacular iron play is going to be more important than ever. The 29-year-old is a remarkably consistent iron player, and ranks first in Strokes Gained: Approach over his past 50 rounds.

Berger also arrives at Harbour Town in solid form. Among his six stroke-play starts this season, he has finished in the top 20 in four of them and top five twice.

Berger has shown he is capable of winning in strong fields when the course suits him, and Harbour Town seems to be an ideal spot for him to earn his fifth PGA TOUR victory.

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Daniel Berger +3500

Derek Farnsworth: As soon as I saw +3500 at Caesars on Berger, I rushed to the online betting window.

We can throw out his T50 performance at the Masters because Augusta National seems to have his number. For whatever reason, he hasn’t played well in his last four starts at the Masters. Prior to that, he had been playing some excellent golf – T13 at THE PLAYERS and T4 at the Honda Classic.

While a little longer off the tee, Berger is very similar to Webb Simpson and Kevin Kisner in that he tends to play his best golf on these shorter courses. Harbour Town favors accuracy off the tee and elite iron play, two things Berger has excelled at throughout his career. The greens here are difficult to hit, so it helps that Berger is 10th in this field in Strokes Gained: Around the Green.

He should feel very comfortable this week, as he’s finished T13 and T3 here the last two years.

Russell Henley +3500

Bryan Berryman: Henley has quietly put himself in the conversation as one of the best iron players in the world.

Over the last 50 tracked rounds, he ranks second among all PGA TOUR players in Strokes Gained: Approach trailing only Justin Thomas. He’s also more than serviceable off the tee, where he ranks 21st in fairways gained in this field over the last 50 rounds. This combination of skills will be vital for golfers this week as they attempt to attack Harbour Town, a course that demands accuracy both off the tee and into its small greens to compete.

While he doesn’t have the recent victories to show for it, all of the advanced data is pointing to a breakthrough win in the near future for Henley. He finished ninth in this event last year, despite losing 2.7 strokes putting. Coming off a great final round performance at the Masters, I think he keeps the momentum going into this week and wins at a course that fits his skill set perfectly.

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