2022 Sony Open Round 3 Updated Odds, Buys & Fades: Hideki Matsuyama & Corey Conners Can Make Big Moves

2022 Sony Open Round 3 Updated Odds, Buys & Fades: Hideki Matsuyama & Corey Conners Can Make Big Moves article feature image

Gregory Shamus/Getty Images. Pictured: Hideki Matsuyama.

  • Russell Henley has an impressive three-stroke lead through two rounds at the Sony Open.
  • Haotong Li and Matt Kuchar are next on the leaderboard, but the value for bettors lies a little further down.
  • Chris Murphy breaks down where he sees value entering the weekend at Waialae Country Club below.

Updated 2022 Sony Open Odds

Russell Henley+140
Hideki Matsuyama+1200
Corey Conners+1600
Matt Kuchar+1600
Hao Tong Li+2200
Seamus Power+2500
Michael Thompson+3000
Chris Kirk+3300
Kevin Na+3300
Stewart Cink+3300
Billy Horschel+4000
Jason Kokrak+4000
Kevin Kisner+4000
Maverick McNealy+4000
Patton Kizzire+4000
Brandt Snedeker+5000
Cameron Davis+6000
Charles Howell III+6000
Davis Riley+6600
Harris English+6600
Ryan Palmer+6600
Talor Gooch+6600
Adam Svensson+7000
Erik van Rooyen+8000
Keita Nakajima+8000
Brendon Todd+10000
Dylan Wu+10000

*Odds via PointsBet, where you can get the complete odds board.

The second round of the Sony Open kicked off in a similar fashion to the first, as low scores continued to be the theme around Waialae Country Club. While Russell Henley fell one shot short of the first-round lead, he certainly made up for that on Friday.

Henley made a charge down the backstretch to move to 15-under and three shots clear of the field. He finished his last six holes in six-under par, including going birdie-birdie-eagle to close the round.

Henley will be joined in the final group on Saturday by Hao-Tong Li, who is certainly the surprise of the week after struggling for much of last season. Li is three shots back of the lead, and one shot clear of Matt Kuchar, who's in third place at 11-under. Michael Thompson is the next in line and the last player at the top holding a solo spot, as the leaderboard begins to bunch behind him at 8- and 9-under par.

We have seen Henley get into position to contend for his fourth win on TOUR a number of times over the past year, but he has yet to find a way to close the deal. It will be interesting to see how he handles the pressure this weekend at a course where he has won in the past.

I still think we can buy some chasers behind him as any stumble will bring a number of players back into the mix with so many birdie opportunities around this track.

Let's take a look at the strokes gained data from the second round in Hawaii to see who may have the best shot to go low on moving day.

Strokes Gained Explanation

Strokes Gained can give golf bettors, DFS players and fans way more detail on how a golfer is truly played by measuring each shot in relation to the rest of the field.

Using the millions of data points it collects, the TOUR calculates how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. If a player beats those averages, he’s gaining strokes on the field.

Every situation in golf is different. Strokes Gained measures how players perform relative to the situation.

In this piece, we’ll touch on a variety of Strokes Gained metrics:

  • Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
  • Strokes Gained: Putting
  • Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)

In general, ball-striking and tee-to-green are the most stable long term, while putting is more prone to volatility.

You can often find live-betting advantages by identifying golfers who are hitting the ball well, but just not getting putts to drop. Likewise, players with high SG: Putting numbers may regress moving forward.

Bet the Sony Open at PointsBet and get $250 FREE.

3 Golfers to Buy in Round 3

Usually when I watch a player for nearly their entire round, I have a pretty good feel for how their strokes gained data will shake out. I was pretty shocked with the approach numbers for Hideki Matsuyama in the second round, as it seemed like he was hitting it better than the numbers indicated.

I am going to rely on my eyes here as I feel like he has a good round coming across the next two days, and if he can pair his ball-striking with a hot putter for even one round, he is certainly one that can go really low. He left some shots out there on Friday, including a three-putt after he drove the green of the par-4 10th, and if he cleans those things up, he will get further into the mix.

Matsuyama the guy from further back that I am buying to make a move on Saturday. You can get him at +1400 over at Caesars.

Bet Hideki Matsuyama at Caesars and get a $5,000 risk-free first bet.

OK, maybe I am buying one more, very similar player to Matsuyama, but since Corey Conners was my pre-tournament pick to win, I am already in on the Canadian. Conners has been the best player on approach through the first two rounds, though his iron play was much better on Thursday than Friday. Still, he gained more than three quarters of a stroke on the field with those irons in the second round, and as often is the case, it was his short game that kept him from going low.

He is very similar to Hideki in that they both can go on runs of hitting approach shots to just a few feet, and if they can make a few more putts, a round of 8-10-under par is in the range of outcomes. I expect one of the two will do that this weekend and put their name in the mix, though it's tough to dive from six shots back with the short odds out there on both players.

Bet Corey Conners at BetMGM and get a risk-free bet up to $1,000.

I have been following Davis Riley pretty closely this week as I felt he was a good play in DFS and that this course would suit his game. He is making me look good through 36 holes as he is matching the two guys above in a tie for fifth at 9-under. He has steadily gained more than a shot on approach in each of the first two rounds, really positioning himself for success with his irons.

The Alabama alum made it to the big stage via the Korn Ferry Tour last season where he finished in the top 50 to qualify for the TOUR this season. He is taking advantage of this start in Hawaii, and while I think it's a long shot for him to contend throughout the weekend for a victory, he will be someone I am eyeing for value in top-five and top-10 markets once they are released overnight.

Bet Davis Riley at FanDuel and get a $1,000 risk-free bet.

3 Golfers to Fade in Round 3

There are a couple of guys that stand out through the first two rounds for potential fades at the top of the leaderboard. They were exact opposites in their rounds on Thursday and Friday, as Seamus Power gained 2.70 strokes on approach in his opening round, then lost 1.59 during his second 18. Stewart Cink was the opposite as he struggled in the first round on approach, then turned it around fully on Friday gaining nearly all of them back.

It's a bit difficult to predict which direction either of these guys are headed, but I'll fade the negative trend for Seamus Power going into Round 3. He had a bit of luck going his way on Thursday as he wasn't really punished for missing more than half of his fairways, missing two greens on the round. It was a different story in the second round and frankly a bit more indicative of how he has been playing to start the week. I expect we will see Power start to tumble down the leaderboard a bit as the pressure rises this weekend.

While these guys certainly flip flopped in their rounds, no one did that quite like Patton Kizzire. He was the best player in the field on Thursday gaining 4.58 strokes on approach, but he lost it all and then some in the second round.

Kizzire couldn't find the great feel he had going in the opening round as he lost .72 strokes to the field on approach, but he managed to save a 2-under round with a sharp putter. We haven't seen any signs of consistency from the former Georgia Bulldog in a long period of time, and it flashed again for us today. I'll go ahead and put my fade in on his ability to stay on the first page of the leaderboard as I just don't think he's quite there yet with his game.

I always find myself rooting for Chris Kirk when I see him in the field, and it was at the Sony Open last year where his second-place finish got him back on TOUR in his last start of his medical exemption. He is playing well once again around Waialae, but the way he has gotten it done has me seeing him as a fade this weekend.

Kirk has been field average on approach across the first two rounds, which is pretty remarkable for a player that is 9-under par on the week. He hasn't even gained one tenth of a stroke on the field with his irons total. Instead, Kirk has been relying on sharp short game to put him inside of the top five heading to the weekend. He's gained more than a stroke on the greens in each round thus far, and he added 1.5 strokes gained around the greens on Friday, buoyed by a hole-out from the greenside bunker on the par-3 seventh.

While I'd love to see Kirk stay in contention across the next two days, it will be really difficult for him to keep up with the low scoring unless he finds his iron game. He has survived well without it thus far, but it will be essential for Kirk to make strides on approach in order to stay in the mix on Saturday and Sunday.

StrokesGained Data for All Players in Round 2

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