2022 Valero Texas Open Odds: 5 First-Round Leader Picks To Target

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The PGA TOUR stays in Texas this week for the Valero Texas Open, as fans gear up for next week at Augusta National.

TPC San Antonio is one of the longer courses players will face this year, measuring 7,494 yards as a par-72 with Bermuda grass greens. Heavy winds will be the course's best defense against players this week. If it's not especially breezy, though, the winner could end up around 20-under.

Many top players are sitting out this week, although some like Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama and Bryson DeChambeau are going to be teeing it up. This is their last chance to find form before heading to Augusta National.

First-round leader betting strategies can vary from week to week. In weeks when my targets are at the top of the board, I tend to take longer shots that may be able to have a strong opening round but are likely to fade as the week goes on.

When my outright betting card consists of a handful of golfers that are further down the betting board, many of the first-round leader plays will be the same as the outrights. One of the worst scenarios as a golf bettor is to have one of your longshot plays in the lead after the first round with nothing to show for it.

For my FRL card, I usually leave off any players who are higher than about 40-1, since I think for this market the value lies with the long shots. It’s much more likely for these types of golfers to flash on the leaderboard for one round than sustain their place at the top of the leaderboard throughout the weekend.

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Tony Finau (+5000)

With eight birdies in his final match against Xander Schauffele at the WGC Dell Match Play, there’s some hope that Finau has regained the form that made him a top level player for so long. Finding birdies in bunches is the key to being a first-round leader and although it’s tough to be sold on the fact that he’s completely back, he showed he can still go really low for one round.

Finau has a third place finish here back in 2017, so he’s shown that the course suits him if he is playing well.

Kevin Streelman (+6500)

Streelman has been excellent at TPC San Antonio. He has top-10 finishes (eighth and sixth) in his past two trips to the course.

While not a great putter, Streelman's results on Bermuda grass have been much better than other surfaces. He rolled it well in the Florida swing, gaining an average of 2.2 strokes putting on the field per event. A hot putter in round one could propel him to an early lead on Thursday.

Patton Kizzire (+5500)

Last season, we saw Kizzire get extremely hot in any event taking place in Texas, registering three top-10 finishes in the Lone Star State. At this event last year, when he finished ninth, the 36-year-old gained 8.1 strokes on approach, which was the most he’s ever gained in his career.

Kizzire is typically a hot starter, and I trust him a lot more to start fast than I do to finish strong. He ranks seventh in the field in Strokes Gained: Total in round one.

Brendan Steele (+9000)

In his past two starts at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and THE PLAYERS, Steele has gained 10.1 and 9.5 strokes from tee to green respectively. He ranks second in the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee in his past 24 rounds, which has been statistically extremely important at this event in the past.

Steele’s combination of both distance and accuracy with the driver make him an ideal course fit at TPC San Antonio. In his past five starts, he’s gained an average of 9.7 strokes on the field in driving distance and 2.9 strokes on the field in driving accuracy.

I wrote in my outright preview about Steele’s ability to have “spike” putting weeks. This should play well into the first round leader narrative. He isn’t a great putter but catches a hot one on a one round basis relatively often.

David Lipsky (+9000)

In 2020, Lipsky won the San Antonio Challenge at TPC San Antonio. Although it was the “Canyons” Course, it does show his comfortability with the greens and playing golf in the area.

We saw the 33-year-old get off to a hot start at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where he was a co-leader after the first round. Additionally, he finished in seventh last week at the Corales Puntacana, so he arrives in Texas with some momentum.

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