2022 Valero Texas Open Odds & Picks: Matthias Schwab Among 3 Longshots To Target

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The PGA TOUR continues its swing through the Lone Star State, two-stepping from the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play in Austin over to the Valero Texas Open in San Antonio.

Many of the world’s best will be stepping aside this weekend to prepare for the Masters next week, leaving an intriguing field with a ton of potential value for the betting public.

The unique spot on the calendar has opened up this event to dark horse winners in recent years, like Steven Bowditch in 2014, Kevin Chappell in 2017, and Andrew Landry in 2018. If that’s going to happen again this time around, these three names stand out among their fellow longshots.

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Charley Hoffman +8000 (BetMGM)

We have not seen Charley Hoffman’s best golf lately. The long time PGA TOUR pro has not finished in the top 20 in any of his eleven starts in the 2022 FedEx Cup season. He’s missed back-to-back cuts and has not even finished in the top 65 of a tournament in the 2022 calendar year.

Nonetheless, it's somehow hard to ignore his chances to contend this weekend. Hoffman is the ultimate horse for the course here at TPC San Antonio. He has played this tournament at this venue 11 times and never missed the cut and finished outside the top 40 just once. In nine of his 11 starts here, Hoffman has found the top 15, with five finishes inside the top five, including a win back in 2016.

For the more analytical minded among you, no player with more than 12 rounds played at TPC San Antonio has more True Strokes Gained per round than Hoffman, per Data Golf.

Some books are a little more bullish on Hoffman’s chances here. FanDuel, for example, has him listed as low as +4600 to win. At that price, I’d stay away. At BetMGM’s number, paying 80-to-1, Hoffman is absolutely worth a spot on your card this weekend.

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Brian Stuard +12500 (PointsBet)

The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio rewards those with skill around the greens. On average, nearly 18 percent of the champion’s strokes gained at this event come from his work around the green, according to Data Golf. The average PGA Tour event winner typically sees just 14 percent of strokes gained coming from around the green.

Over the last calendar year, Brian Stuard has been a top 10 player in the world around the greens, using strokes gained data. He recently gained over a stroke per round at the Valspar Championship and THE PLAYERS Championship earlier this month.

Stuard has shown an ability to translate that skill to a spot in contention at this venue as well. Back in 2019, he finished in a tie for fourth place. He is also playing well right now, coming off a T7 in Punta Cana and four top 25 finishes in his last five tournaments.

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Matthias Schwab +12500 (PointsBet)

Sticking with the theme of crafty short game players, Matthias Schwab has been a wizard in that regard in recent months. In the last three months, dating back seven starts for Schwab, he ranks second in the world in Strokes Gained: Around the Green.

Much of that success has come from his work in the sand. Schwab ranks in the top 15 on Tour this season in Sand Save percentage and Proximity to the Hole from the sand.

The young Austrian has put that to good use, earning two top 10s in his last four starts. He has been rock solid on the greens this season, ranking sixth in the PGA Tour’s “Total Putting” statistic and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting. Schwab is a perfect 184-184 putting inside 3-feet.

If he continues to putt well, on top of his skills around the green and in bunkers, Schwab fits well at TPC San Antonio. This is his first time competing at this venue, potentially giving him some value as a dark horse with limited information available.