2022 WGC-Dell Match Play Odds, Picks: Finding this Year’s Longshots at Austin Country Club
Patrick Smith/Getty Images. Pictured: Ian Poulter.
Click arrow to expand 2022 WGC-Dell Match Play odds via PointsBet
2022 WGC-Dell Match Play Odds
| Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jon Rahm | +1400 |
| Justin Thomas | +1600 |
| Viktor Hovland | +1600 |
| Collin Morikawa | +1800 |
| Scottie Scheffler | +1800 |
| Dustin Johnson | +2000 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +2000 |
| Xander Schauffele | +2200 |
| Daniel Berger | +2800 |
| Jordan Spieth | +2800 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +3000 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | +3000 |
| Billy Horschel | +3300 |
| Brooks Koepka | +3300 |
| Joaquin Niemann | +3300 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | +3300 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | +3300 |
| Paul Casey | +3300 |
| Shane Lowry | +3300 |
| Sungjae Im | +4000 |
| Abraham Ancer | +5000 |
| Adam Scott | +5000 |
| Max Homa | +5000 |
| Russell Henley | +5000 |
| Sergio Garcia | +5000 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +5000 |
| Will Zalatoris | +5000 |
| Alexander Noren | +6000 |
| Brian Harman | +6000 |
| Corey Conners | +6000 |
| Tony Finau | +6000 |
| Jason Kokrak | +6600 |
| Kevin Kisner | +6600 |
| Patrick Reed | +6600 |
| Talor Gooch | +6600 |
| Webb Simpson | +7000 |
| Maverick McNealy | +7000 |
| Bubba Watson | +8000 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | +8000 |
| Keegan Bradley | +8000 |
| Keith Mitchell | +8000 |
| Marc Leishman | +8000 |
| Robert MacIntyre | +8000 |
| Si Woo Kim | +8000 |
| Tom Hoge | +8000 |
| Ian Poulter | +8000 |
| Justin Rose | +8000 |
| Sepp Straka | +8000 |
| Cameron Tringale | +10000 |
| Harold Varner III | +10000 |
| Seamus Power | +10000 |
| Thomas Pieters | +10000 |
| Cameron Young | +12500 |
| Erik Van Rooyen | +12500 |
| Kevin Na | +12500 |
| Lee Westwood | +12500 |
| Lucas Herbert | +12500 |
| Luke List | +12500 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | +12500 |
| Matthew Wolff | +12500 |
| Sebastian Munoz | +12500 |
| Min Woo Lee | +20000 |
| Richard Bland | +20000 |
| Takumi Kanaya | +20000 |
The format of the WGC-Dell Match Play event is intended to invoke the fun and the chaos of March Madness, which occurs concurrently. Bracket fever is in the air, and the PGA TOUR can’t help but get involved.
There are some major differences between the two events though. The PGA TOUR has dialed down the potential chaos, starting the week with round robin group play rather than a straight single elimination bracket. There’s good reason for that. The world’s best players aren’t inclined to show up to a tournament that could send them home after 18 holes.
It does, however, water down the process of betting on the event. Finding a dark horse is a bit tougher when they need to not only get hot but also survive a full round of pool play before the knockout stage of 16 golfers is set.
That hasn’t stopped dark horses too much, with eight of the 16 groups in last year’s event being won by the lowest seeded member of the group.
As everyone quickly goes through picking winners for each group, here is a quick reminder of the volatility of this event.
In 2021, 8 of the 16 group winners were the worst seeded player in their group. 3 were the third ranked of their group and only Jon Rahm was the top seed.
— Chris Murphy (@CS_Murph) March 21, 2022
With that in mind, we’ll go fishing for underdogs to win their group or make a run into the weekend.
Ian Poulter +300 to Win Group 5
Poults is not playing his best golf at the moment, going without a top ten on US soil since the FedEx St. Jude in August of 2021.
His match play record, however, can’t be ignored. Say what you will about the cliches that surround Poulter every time the Ryder Cup rolls around, he gets it done whenever the format shifts away from 72-hole stroke play.
In his career as a pro, Poulter is 47-19-5 in singles match play, including 9-3 at this venue. I expected to see his odds skewed in his favor, making him a bad play, but that isn’t the case. He has the longest odds to win Group 5 at +300 and is a bit of a steal at +8000 to win the entire tournament.
FanDuel is offering shorter odds for Keegan Bradley, who is winless in six career matches at Austin Country Club? I don’t buy it. I’ll take the value on Poults.
Alex Noren +310 to Win Group 10
Speaking of Europeans who deserve a little more love for their match play records, let’s look at Alex Noren. The Swede has the best career match play record of any player in this week’s field, earning a victory in 70 percent of his singles matches.
That is not skewed by his work at other events, either. Noren is 10-4 in this event since it moved to Austin, with wins over Brooks Koepka (twice), Patrick Reed, Cam Smith, and Tony Finau. One of his losses came at the hands of match play wizard Kevin Kisner on the 19th hole of the match.
Noren has always played well coming into this week, with three top 12 finishes and no missed cuts in his last six events.
Mackenzie Hughes +310 to Win Group 8
Hughes has struggled a tad in 2022, with only one top 20 and zero top 10s in six starts. He’s missed two straight cuts, yet I’m looking at the whacky PLAYERS Championship and the quick follow-up at the Valspar with a grain of salt.
Hughes has played well in this event, though in a very small sample size. 2021 was his first and only start here, yet Hughes won his pool by going 2-0-1 in the round robin format.
He was bounced in the round of 16 by Sergio Garcia on the 17th hole, but there’s certainly no shame in that. I’m willing to roll the dice on his chances to win his group, paying better than 3-to-1.
Brian Harman +1600 to Make the Semifinals
Last year, Harman was one of the spoilers, winning his group as the lowest seeded player. He went 2-1, losing to Patrick Cantlay, yet he got revenge by topping Cantlay in the sudden death playoff to determine the group winner.
He also won his group the previous time he played this event in 2018, defeating Rory McIlory 5&3 to clinch his spot in the final 16.
In both of those events, Harman was sent home in the first round of single elimination, despite strong play all week. He’s due for a deep run in this tournament and has some compelling odds to find his way into the final four.
Russell Henley +4100 to win
These odds don’t jump out like a typical longshot would in a full field week, but with fewer players in the field and a more direct path to a winner, this qualifies as a dark horse in my book.
Henley is absolutely capable of getting hot and winning this weekend. Over the past six months, according to the stats folks at DataGolf, Henley ranks sixth in the world in True Strokes Gained. That is not a small sample size, including 11 starts for Henley dating back to September. In that period, he turned that strong play into just one top five finish.
Perhaps his recent strong play will be better suited to match play, where he has always been competitive, yet fallen short. In his career, he is just 4-6-1 at this event, yet all of those six losses came on the 18th green.
Interesting note that I mentioned on @BettorGolfPod last year about Russell Henley at the Match Play:
4-6-1 lifetime record, but Henley has never lost a match before 18. Something is going to turn with him eventually at this event.
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) March 21, 2022
His luck is due to swing the other way eventually, so why not when he’s playing his best golf in a long time? FanDuel is offering him at +250 to win a crowded group in round robin play, though he’s worth the flyer to be the champ by the end of the weekend.
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