2023 3M Open Best Bets: Picks for Keith Mitchell, Sepp Straka, Taylor Pendrith & More
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Our staff has analyzed the 2023 3M Open odds board and found their 2023 3M Open Best Bets and other expert picks for this week's PGA Tour event at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota.
Check out our Action Network golf betting expert picks and previews for the 3M Open, including picks for Keith Mitchell, Sepp Straka, Taylor Pendrith & more as we go through our 2023 3M Open best bets.
2023 3M Open Best Bets
Spencer Aguiar: Kevin Roy Top 40 +400 (FanDuel)
Roy's first round tee time: 3:00 p.m. ET
The most significant pre-event exposure bet on my card will be Nicolai Hojgaard (-110) over Sahith Theegala. However, if we are looking for the largest return on a win, it will be the 0.3 units I am placing on Kevin Roy to land a top-40 finish at +400.
These vast green complexes will typically have one of two scenarios come into play: The first option is it lands on the putting surface and enhances driver and iron numbers. The second is that an approach finds the bottom of the water, which removes all scrambling ability, a total that often is what hurts Roy’s upside.
Roy's 17th-place grade for Weighted Scoring and Total Ball-Striking is a massive number for a wager I had closer to +200 versus the +400 going rate.
Jason Sobel: Taylor Pendrith +6500 (FanDuel)
Pendrith's first round tee time: 9:24 a.m. ET
Maybe it’s that Brian Harman recency bias having an impact, but I believe this is a nice week to look further down the board for a player with a juicier number.
That doesn’t mean one of the bigger names can’t win – Cameron Young (+1400) and Sungjae Im (+2200) are both players I considered for this spot – but I ultimately landed on Taylor Pendrith at 3-4 times the price and (in my opinion) inside of one-quarter to one-third of their win probability.
The Canadian tends to heat up during the summer months. Last year, he returned in July after missing four months due to injury and promptly finished inside the top 15 in each of his next four starts.
After a poor start to this year, he now owns a pair of top-15 results in his last three starts, again hitting that summer trend.
Sure, maybe there’s something to the fact that this time of year also tends to coincide with some inferior fields, but that’s the case again this week on a course which should fit his game nicely.
Chris Murphy: Sepp Straka +3000 (DraftKings)
Straka's first round tee time: 8:29 a.m. ET
While the big story this week was Brian Harman, it could certainly be argued that the next one should be about the continued great play of Sepp Straka. He rolled into The Open fresh off of an incredible win of his own, after a final-round 62 at the John Deere Classic vaulted him to victory.
It's been noted several times that he found a bit of a set-up issue putting after the first round of the JDC, and that has rolled him into seven consecutive impressive rounds of golf.
Straka seems to set up well for this coming week with his consistent play throughout the bag. He's not the longest hitter off the tee despite his size, but he's recently added a sharp putting game with his top 15 Strokes Gained: Approach ranking on TOUR this season, and those two weapons will be dangerous any given week.
I like that we get a decent mid-tier number on the big Austrian who is arguably playing as well as anyone in this field.
Nick Bretwisch: Keith Mitchell +5500 (bet365)
Mitchell's first round tee time: 8:51 a.m. ET
I’m buying low on one of my favorite golfers to target on courses where Total Driving seems to be a key factor in separating those who succeed and those who underwhelm.
Mitchell did not participate in this event last year but did take fifth here in 2021 where he led the 3M Open in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, was second in Strokes Gained: Putting and 26th in Ball-Striking.
His short game has been a weakness over the years, but that shouldn't matter much this week on TPC Twin Cities’ oversized greens.
Currently ranked 66th on the FedExCup Points List, look for Mitchell to come out firing after a strange missed cut at the Scottish Open where he was among the top 15 in Ball-Striking in both rounds he played, yet almost dead last in putting.
2023 3M Open Expert Picks, Fades
Favorites We’re Backing
- Jason Sobel: Sungjae Im
- Chris Murphy: Sepp Straka
- Spencer Aguiar: Cameron Young
- Nick Bretwisch: Ludvig Aberg
Best Long Shot
- Sobel: Garrick Higgo
- Murphy: Alex Noren
- Aguiar: Kevin Yu
- Bretwisch: Will Gordon
- Sobel: Tony Finau
- Murphy: Justin Thomas
- Aguiar: Sahith Theegala
- Bretwisch: Tony Finau
Contrarian Player To Target
- Sobel: Erik Van Rooyen
- Murphy: Cameron Champ
- Aguiar: Keith Mitchell
- Bretwisch: Keith Mitchell
Trend That Guides Your 2023 3M Open Betting Strategy
Sobel: Really, we only need to look at the winners’ list, which includes Matthew Wolff, Cameron Champ and Tony Finau – an unsubtle hint that banging driver long and straight is even more advantageous here than most other venues, despite playing just over 7,200 yards. That said, driving distance is just a bit less important here than at the average PGA Tour stop, but Strokes Gained: Off the Tee receives a fairly large bump in relevance.
I’ll be targeting those who are best with the big stick in their hands, starting with a few guys at bigger opening odds, essentially allowing us to build a bigger card and take a few more outright chances than usual.
Aguiar: We have seen massive increases in expected production for off-the-tee and approach stats, with the off-the-tee metrics yielding a 4.4% increase in dispersion of scoring and approach landing at 6.1%.
I found that to be an interesting return since the 3M Open is often thought of as a birdie fest, but the 15 holes with water will amplify the need for quality ball-striking above all else.