Promotion Banner

2023 WM Phoenix Open Odds, Picks: Our Staff’s Best Bets for Sam Burns, Justin Thomas, Tommy Fleetwood & More

2023 WM Phoenix Open Odds, Picks: Our Staff’s Best Bets for Sam Burns, Justin Thomas, Tommy Fleetwood & More article feature image

Getty Images. Pictured: Justin Thomas (left) and Sam Burns.

  • The 2023 WM Phoenix Open — the biggest party in golf — begins Thursday.
  • Our staff came through with plenty of picks for this PGA TOUR stop, including best bets for Sam Burns, Justin Thomas and more.
  • Check out all of our best bets for the 2023 WM Phoenix Open below.
Click arrow to expand the WM Phoenix Open odds via Caesars
Golfer Odds
Jon Rahm +600
Rory McIlroy +800
Scottie Scheffler +1200
Collin Morikawa +1400
Xander Schauffele +1400
Tom Kim +1500
Tony Finau +1600
Justin Thomas +1800
Max Homa +1800
Patrick Cantlay +2000
Cameron Young +2500
Sungjae Im +2500
Hideki Matsuyama +2800
Sahith Theegala +3000
Viktor Hovland +3500
Matt Fitzpatrick +4000
Sam Burns +4000
Taylor Montgomery +5000
Alex Noren +5000
Jordan Spieth +5500
Tyrrell Hatton +6000
Tommy Fleetwood +6000
Shane Lowry +6000
Jason Day +6500
Keith Mitchell +6500
Rickie Fowler +6500
Corey Conners +7000
Billy Horschel +7500
Russell Henley +7500
Maverick McNealy +8000
Chris Kirk +8000
J.T. Poston +8000
Tom Hoge +8000
Si Woo Kim +8000
Keegan Bradley +8000
K.H. Lee +8000
Brian Harman +8000
Lucas Herbert +8500
Taylor Pendrith +9000
Denny McCarthy +9000
Brendan Steele +10000
Aaron Wise +10000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +12500
Seamus Power +12500
Gary Woodland +12500
Joel Dahmen +12500
Scott Stallings +12500
Matt Kuchar +12500
Adam Hadwin +12500
Harris English +12500
Beau Hossler +12500
Kurt Kitayama +12500
J.J. Spaun +15000
Luke List +15000
Garrick Higgo +15000
Nate Lashley +15000
Hayden Buckley +15000
Francesco Molinari +15000
Brendon Todd +17500
Webb Simpson +20000
Wyndham Clark +20000
Emiliano Grillo +20000
David Lipsky +20000
Kevin Kisner +20000
Patrick Rodgers +20000
Davis Thompson +20000
Trey Mullinax +20000
Martin Laird +25000
Mark Hubbard +25000
Stephan Jaeger +25000
Greyson Sigg +25000
Patton Kizzire +25000
Sam Ryder +25000
Peter Malnati +25000
Matthew NeSmith +25000
Nick Taylor +25000
Erik van Rooyen +25000
Troy Merritt +30000
Andrew Putnam +30000
Davis Riley +30000
Brandon Wu +30000
Jhonattan Vegas +30000
Scott Piercy +30000
Cameron Champ +30000
Taylor Moore +30000
Stewart Cink +30000
Charley Hoffman +30000
Russell Knox +30000
Chez Reavie +30000
Mackenzie Hughes +35000
Matt Wallace +40000
J.B. Holmes +40000
Dylan Frittelli +40000
Aaron Rai +40000
Chesson Hadley +40000
Kevin Streelman +40000
Callum Tarren +40000
Michael Thompson +50000
Adam Schenk +50000
Adam Svensson +50000
Lee Hodges +50000
Austin Smotherman +50000
Lucas Glover +50000
Zach Johnson +50000
Danny Lee +50000
Doug Ghim +50000
Kevin Tway +50000
Justin Lower +50000
Adam Long +50000
Ryan Palmer +50000
Matthias Schwab +50000
Ryan Brehm +75000
Jimmy Walker +75000
Tyler Duncan +75000
Kramer Hickok +75000
Doc Redman +75000
Chad Ramey +75000
Richy Werenski +75000
James Hahn +75000
Robert Streb +75000
Ryan Moore +75000
Andrew Landry +75000
Rory Sabbatini +75000
Nick Watney +100000
Kelly Kraft +100000
Max McGreevy +100000
Michael Hopper +100000
Jason Dufner +100000
Brian Gay +100000
Jim Herman +150000
Ricky Barnes +150000
Brett White +150000
Dalton Ward +200000
Andre Metzger +200000

Welcome to the biggest party in golf.

Our staff has its WM Phoenix Open picks ready ahead of the perfect appetizer in the Phoenix area for the Super Bowl. Sunday, the winner of this tournament will net more than $3 million right before the Chiefs and Eagles face off about 25 miles away.

Last year, this tournament lasted into the first quarter of Rams vs. Bengals, with Scottie Scheffler needing extra holes to get his first PGA Tour win in a playoff over Patrick Cantlay. None of our experts are betting Scheffler to repeat, although one is high on Cantlay.

The must-have app for bettors

The best betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

Favorite We’re Backing

What is QuickSlip?

QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically preload their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Best Long Shot

  • Sobel: Rickie Fowler
  • Murphy: Jhonattan Vegas
  • Vincenzi: Brendan Steele
  • Aguiar: J.T. Poston
  • Bretwisch: Tommy Fleetwood

Biggest Bust

  • Sobel: Viktor Hovland
  • Murphy: Jordan Spieth
  • Vincenzi: Max Homa
  • Aguiar: Hayden Buckley
  • Bretwisch: Cameron Young

Contrarian Player To Target

  • Sobel: Sam Burns
  • Murphy: Brian Harman
  • Vincenzi: Tyrrell Hatton
  • Aguiar: Brian Harman
  • Bretwisch: Tommy Fleetwood

Trend That Guides Your Betting Strategy

Sobel: My trend is a non-trend — and yes, I’ll explain what that means.

For as much as I look at analytics on a weekly basis, I’ve always tried to humanize any wagers by factoring in a player’s personality and how it might align to a specific tournament. That means more here than most other events, because this one is so unique.

As a result, I’ve often targeted players who are confident, have some swagger and enjoy being in the spotlight. That’s been a winning formula at times, as Brooks Koepka, Rickie Fowler, Gary Woodland and Phil Mickelson are all champions who have fit the profile. But it’s hardly foolproof. Last year’s winner, Scottie Scheffler, isn’t exactly a cocky dude, nor are fellow recent winners Webb Simpson and Hideki Matsuyama.

Moral of the story? While a player’s inner resolve can certainly be a factor this week, there’s more than one type of personality who can find success here.

Murphy: There will be a lot of talk about course history and the importance of experience around this tournament at TPC Scottsdale. Part of that will be centered around the unique atmosphere, but rather than try to figure out who may be able to handle that well, I’m simply dialing in on ball strikers.

The one theme regarding skillset year after year at this tournament is a player’s ball striking ability on a course that will play firm and fast, testing every aspect of their game tee to green. Players won’t be able to fake it off the tee or on approach this week, they’ll have to be dialed in to contend and that will be far and away my most important metric in looking for golfers this week.

Aguiar:  When we are looking at this tournament and figuring out what metrics matter, there is a reason we have seen putting a few percentage points lower here when it comes to the dispersion of scoring in the past few iterations of this contest. Sure, the greens can be firm and fast, generating awkward looks because of the speed, but all of that emphasizes the need for pure ball-strikers.

Over 50% of my statistical interaction when constructing my numbers for this tournament came when highlighting some combination of off-the-tee or approach totals.

Bretwisch: I’m keeping it simple this week with fairway-finding ball strikers who can make putts. I do value course history a bit this week as the event is a bit more “predictable” than many others on tour, but debutants seem to have plenty of success here if they come in with good ball striking form.

Best Bets

Sobel: Sam Burns +4200

In most situations, we examine some statistical combination of form and course history to help suggest a rationale behind our bets. There are also certain times, we’ll all admit, when our gut influences a hunch play.

And then there are times like these, when an outright price seems so egregious that you must jump on it, even if those previous reasons don’t necessarily align.

This price feels like an injustice toward this four-time champion. I suppose we can understand it: Burns looked inconsistent at the end of last year, rusty at the beginning of this year and failed to make the cut in three of his four prior appearances at this tournament. But then there’s this: He finished T-11 in his most recent start at The AmEx, where he gained strokes in every major category, and serves as a smart comp to his buddy Scheffler, who happened to win this one last year.

At half this price, Burns might not have garnered too much interest from me, but at the current number, his name leaps off the board as a mid-tier play on a top-tier player. I’ll use this to supplement outrights on Collin Morikawa and Sungjae Im, each of whom owns shorter odds in the marketplace.

Murphy: Hayden Buckley – Top 20 (+500)

The outrights I’ve made this week are on players at numbers that are no longer available, so I’ll take a different angle for my best bet of the week and target a good number for a top-20 from Hayden Buckley.

Buckley was the player that fell short of Si Woo Kim in the Sony Open in January, but really showed us his talent at the time. He continued his great play the following week at the American Express, where he posted all four rounds in the sixties and followed it up with a strong start at Torrey Pines before a dreadful 80 in the heavy winds in Round 2 on the South Course.

If you look at the Strokes Gained numbers, that 80 will skew things for him because it was the only measured round of the week. Prior to that, though, he had a stretch of nine straight rounds in the sixties. He ranks 12th in this field over the short term in Ball Striking (SG: Off the Tee plus SG: Approach) and checks the boxes as a top 10 type of player in additional metrics like Total Driving.

All of this adds up to me really liking the chances to see Buckley in the mix for a top finish and on BetMGM where ties are paid in full, these are some nice odds to get him for a top-20 type of finish.

Vincenzi: Justin Thomas (+2200)

This is an event I’ve always thought Justin Thomas was destined to win. As we’ve seen at both the Ryder Cup and the President’s Cup, “JT” is a player who thrives off of energy from the crowd and he’ll certainly get his fair share of that this week in Scottsdale.

Since Thomas’ PGA Championship win back in May 2022, it’s been a mixed bag of results both in terms of finishes and statistically. He’s had some good weeks but it certainly hasn’t been up to the standard we’ve grown accustomed to for the superstar. However, as an elite player on TOUR, whenever his odds start to drift back to the 20-1 range it’s time to get back on. The 29-year-old is a great player who wins big time events, and with the WMPO being an elevated event this year it certainly fits the description.

Thomas has played some great golf at TPC Scottsdale. Last year, he finished eighth and gained 7.1 strokes on approach, which was second in the field behind only Bubba Watson. Additionally, “JT” has third-place finishes in both 2019 and ‘20, as well as a 13th place finish in ‘21.

With fifteen career PGA TOUR wins, Thomas doesn’t often go too long without getting a win. I believe he breaks his mini-drought this week in the desert.

Aguiar: J.T. Poston 50th or Better -120 (bet365)

When you see me recommending a non-head-to-head wager as my favorite bet of the week, you know something has gone horribly wrong with the board from a value perspective. None of that is to suggest that I don’t like J.T. Poston’s chances to secure a finish inside the top 50, but this slate is as watered-down as you can imagine when trying to find an edge.

Poston has generated four consecutive finishes at this tournament of 37th or better since 2019. Not to mention that his four straight top-21 results to begin the 2023 season will only add to that emerging level of play we have recently gotten out of the 29-year-old.

Bretwisch: Tommy Fleetwood – Top 40 (+120, FanDuel)

We haven’t seen Tommy Fleetwood stateside since the CJ Cup in South Carolina back in October (where he finished T4 and gained strokes in every category), but he will make his return to the USA for the WM Phoenix Open.

I’ll be overexposed to “ball-striking Jesus” in almost every facet of this event, and that will start with plus money in the top-40 market. My numbers grade Fleetwood as the 19th-best golfer in this event and would price him right around (-130) in this market. I’ll take 50 points of expected value any chance that I can get. I love that sharper books in the market have him as a favorite to elite golfers like Burns (who is priced at -160 on FanDuel in this same top-40 market).

Pick: Tommy Fleetwood Top 40 (+120)

How would you rate this article?

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.