2024 Byron Nelson Picks: Outright Picks for TPC Craig Ranch

The PGA Tour heads to Dallas this week, and our golf analysts have 2024 Byron Nelson Picks ready.

Our golf betting experts have already peppered the Byron Nelson outright betting board on Monday, and they have outright bets for three different golfers, including Seamus Power.

Find our favorite 2024 Byron Nelson Picks for this week's PGA Tour event at TPC Craig Ranch below.

2024 Byron Nelson Picks

Spencer Aguiar: Adam Schenk +5000 (bet365)

Some of these plays are better inside safety markets than as upside wagers. I landed on a few of those fringe options myself since the overall portions of my model found enough that it liked to stomach the high hold percentages throughout the entire space.

However, one of the wagers that presented the best ceiling-plus-price combination I could find on the board was Adam Schenk at +5000 in the enhanced-win market at bet365.

Schenk couldn't quite reach the upper tier of my model because of his lack of Texas pedigree inside my sheet, although the combination he possessed of Weighted Long Iron Production, Expected Driving and Bentgrass Putting helped to land him third in my model behind only Jason Day and Peter Kuest when equally combining all three factors into one grade.

That Kuest discussion can be done as a deeper dive on this week's Links + Locks Byron Nelson Betting Preview Podcast (dropping early Wednesday) because I am also swinging for the fences on his 100-1 price. Schenk’s profile and past TPC success outside of TPC Craig Ranch presented a pronounced return to consider.

Greg Waddell: Keith Mitchell +3500 (DraftKings)

TPC Craig Ranch is a very gettable course where tee-to-green accuracy can lead to some impressive numbers under par. Keith Mitchell has been great both off the tee and on his approach shots in recent weeks. Of all players in the field this week, Mitchell ranks second overall in Strokes Gained: Approach over his last 24 rounds (+1.02 per round), and he is also fourth in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee in that span (+0.82 per round).

As the only golfer in the field to rank in the top five in both of those categories, there should be opportunities galore for Mitchell to make his mark this weekend. It also doesn’t hurt that he is in great form as well. In Mitchell’s last eight starts on Tour, he has finished inside the top 20 an impressive five times.

At 35-1, this is great value for a hot golfer whose strengths match the course setup.

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Matt Gannon: Seamus Power +7000 (bet365)

Don't look now but Seamus Power is stacking great approach weeks as he has gained strokes on approach in each of his last five starts. He has been in the mix recently as well as he was in the final group at the Valspar Championship and tied for 12th at the RBC Heritage.

In three trips to TPC Craig Ranch, Power has finished in the top 20 every time. He is an extremely streaky player, and we are in the middle of a Power surge.

The key to his success is iron play, and that is also what TPC Craig Ranch demands. Power is a hot iron player who is in great form on a course that he has played well on and fits perfectly. Power is a two-time winner on the PGA Tour, and this field is fairly week, so the stars are aligning for Power to grab another win.

Tony Sartori: Tom Hoge +3300 (betMGM)

Once again, Tom Hoge will tee it up in a golf tournament where he is the best ball-striker in a Scottie Scheffler-less field. On Tour this season, Hoge ranks second in Strokes Gained: Approach and has now gained strokes on approach in 10 consecutive tournaments with ShotLink data.

He made the weekend in all 10 of those events, boasting seven top 20-finishes over that stretch. He had a bit of a hiccup last week at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, but that was a team event and does not concern me at all about Hoge’s profile moving forward.

In fact, that missed cut honestly makes me like Hoge more this week as I feel 33-1 is a good buy-low number on such an efficient ball-striker. He has also made the weekend in each of his past two appearances in this event, including a tie for 17th in 2022.