2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson Round 2 Data-Driven Pick: Bet Jake Knapp

The term "birdie fest" is used quite frequently on the PGA Tour, although I don't know many courses that would deserve the title more than TPC Craig Ranch.

The field combined to shoot 333-under-par from the 156 golfers in the field, with the top 94 players all landing at two-under-par or better. 

We could go on and on about the lack of appeal that these tournaments possess from a gambling nature when you get reduced difficulty, but I'm going to dive into a head-to-head wager for Friday that had nearly a six percent implied probability advantage for round two.

None of that suggests that I don't still worry about the volatile nature of this event, but the market looks to be overvaluing a certain performance from Thursday.  

If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.

2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson Round 2 Matchup Predictions

Jake Knapp -125 over Davis Riley (FanDuel)

We get an interesting spot here of two players sitting second on the leaderboard but going in massively different directions in expectation.

I always discuss how overreacting to one round of golf is troubling since some people in the industry forget about the brunt of their pre-event research and massively shift their takes after 18 holes. It's worth noting that the sentiment isn't limited to only good or bad play.

However, Davis Riley lands in this unique bucket of a golfer that my model ranked 96th before a ball was hit on Thursday and somehow got worse in projection after shooting his seven-under effort, dropping to 108th for his head-to-head rank entering round two.

Riley gained a staggering 5.36 shots with his short game, a full 1.19 strokes better than our second most significant overachiever on the leaderboard.

Sure, we have seen this boom-or-bust profile from Riley in the past since the American can get hot at any moment, but outside of his Texas pedigree, there's a lackluster return in my model for a golfer who's getting way too much respect for his quality day that featured more glitz than glamour.

The -125 tag on this wager is about as steep as I like to get when laying juice, but it's hard to ignore these polarizing profiles. I would have priced this closer to -160.