2024 Farmers Insurance Open Data-Driven Pick: Best Bet for Round 4

It was another nice day for us in the head-to-head market on Friday, as Adam Schenk (+155) was able to slip past Patrick Cantlay, giving us our third matchup win in as many tries this week.

I didn't find much of an edge on the card Saturday and will be calling it a week at 3-0. That is a bit of a spoiler alert for the next section since it doesn't contain my typical head-to-head play of the day, but here is where everything stands as we head into the final round.

Luckily, there is still value to be found in other market sectors, so with that goal in mind, let's dive into the one position I will be backing in Round 4.

If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports), where I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.

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2024 Farmers Insurance Open

Nicolai Hojgaard +450 (Bet365)

Whether you have read my articles or listened to my podcasts this week, you will know I have been calling for a way to become invested in Nicolai Hojgaard since Tuesday afternoon.

I made a massive blunder when I tried to get cute, waiting for Hojgaard to play his first round at the South before becoming invested. Naturally, the 22-year-old produced a birdie in three of his first five holes and fired a tournament-leading 5-under for the day, causing his odds to get slashed by more than 50% by the time markets reopened Wednesday night.

I couldn't figure out the opportune time to enter the market because of the shrinking number. You could argue the final day, when we are looking at the shortest prices we have gotten this week, is not the most natural jump-in point. However, with Taylor Pendrith and Ludvig Aberg outright tickets already in hand, my model viewed Hojgaard as a 3.5/1 shot (22.22% implied probability) going off the board at 4.25/1 (19.05% implied probability).

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Hojgaard's top-15 projected tee-to-green return from my pre-event data placed him next to Stephan Jaeger as the only two golfers at a minimum of 8-under to enter the final day with an anticipated baseline that would hold off the 7-under chasers.

That faulty retrieval in other areas is why I believe an option like Xander Schauffele is worth an extra look at 14/1 if we expect any failure near the top of the leaderboard. Still, the fact that my model has both Jaeger and Hojgaard inside the top 10 for weighted scoring and par-5 projected scoring at the South made the top of the board a little stronger than many would say when you dive into this European-laced onslaught of names holding court.

Sharp markets have seen Hojgaard slip out into the -150 range versus Jaeger when directly comparing the two in matchups for Round 4. While I wouldn't say I agree with those prices — since Jaeger has more of a puncher's chance than the general public seems to be giving him to capture this title — I am going to trust my model and this slight edge that is being driven from the partial concerns with Jaeger on a fast Poa green complex.

Jaeger's 141st-place grade for projected putting could be his undoing when push comes to shove, allowing a surging Hojgaard to finally notch his first PGA Tour title and cement his stature as one of the great young players in the world.