2024 Masters Round 3 Data-Driven Pick: Fade Tiger Woods on Saturday
(Photo by Andrew Redington/Getty Images) Pictured: Tiger Woods.
Thursday provided one of the strangest betting days I have ever encountered.
From a production standpoint, I will never scoff at 2-1 on our official plays here at Action Network, but I am not sure if we were lucky or unlucky with how everything played out.
We lost Si Woo Kim over Denny McCarthy after Kim gave strokes back on the final two holes and missed twice from within three feet on 18. On the flip side of the equation, we did steal a victory of Tony Finau over Justin Thomas after Thomas played his final four holes at seven-over par. It is not as if Finau didn't experience a similar trajectory himself in poor play, but that wager had no right to win at any point during the day.
Those two outcomes would usually cancel themselves out, but we also ended up losing a Hovland over Thomas full-tournament bet because of this amazing three-putt from the Norweigan on 15.
As I always say, betting is a marathon and not a sprint. However, I'd be lying if I didn't say I felt every swing of action here on Friday. Let's see what Saturday has in store for our round three wager against one of the greatest golfers of all time.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
For more on Tiger Woods' odds, Masters market movements and the latest information from oddsmakers/risk supervisors, check out Patrick Everson's Masters Odds and Betting Trends article on Vegas Insider.
2024 Masters Round 3
Tyrrell Hatton -135 over Tiger Woods (DraftKings)
If we are getting technical, the best pure value on the board would be Adam Schenk +145 over Patrick Reed on DraftKings. My model separated the two by less than one point in my sheet, translating to almost a dead heat of +100 in either direction.
While I am not recommending it as an official wager for round three and won't be tracking it on my sheet because of the coin-flip nature of the bet, I did want to throw it out there for anyone value-hunting. You don't often find a 10% discrepancy in implied win probability, even if I am trying to avoid the 50/50 nature of a wager here since numbers do move quickly.
Instead, I will choose another option that experienced too much movement from where books had this pre-event and select Tyrrell Hatton -135 over Tiger Woods.
My model only had Patrick Reed, Erik Van Rooyen and Akshay Bhatia as golfers who overachieved more than Woods through two rounds of golf. Tiger's one-over score is being projected in my sheet closer to 5.52 strokes over par, and the lack of mobility has been hitting fast after watching him play more than a full round of golf Friday and immediately getting wrapped up to keep his body in good enough shape for round three.
We should continue to rant and rave publicly about how amazing Woods continues to be at this point of his career, but it shouldn't come with a price move that is likely over 100 points off from where numbers would have been pre-event from books.
My guess is this closes more in the range of -150 to -170, and I will take my value against the golf GOAT.
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