We got skunked last week, so we're looking for redemption with our 2024 Wells Fargo Championship Predictions. While I don’t love the limited field with no cut or the fact that this Signature Event is a week before the PGA Championship, I do love this event.
Due to COVID-19 and Quail Hollow Club hosting the PGA Championship and Presidents Cup, the Wells Fargo Championship has been played at a few courses over the last 10 years. Keep this in mind when looking at course history, as you’ll want to exclude a couple of years.
Quail Hollow is a par-71 that measures 7.558 yards and is one of the longest and most challenging courses on the PGA Tour. The last three times this event was held here, it finished the season as the 14th, fifth, and eighth-most difficult course. Length factors into the difficulty along with the water hazards, tree-lined fairways and thick rough. Based on past results at this course, the winning score should be in the 12-to-15 under par range.
The fairways at Quail Hollow are somewhat generous (33 yards wide on average), and golfers will be hitting driver on most of the par-4s and par-5s. Because this is a long and driver-heavy course, we can certainly bump up the importance of distance off the tee.
Shorter hitters can contend here, but they need to be accurate off the tee and dialed in with their long irons. There aren’t a lot of wedge shots on this course, as 76% of approach shots in 2023 were hit from at least 150 yards.
The greens here are average in size (6,600 square feet) and feature Bermudagrass with Poa trivialis overseed. They are generally pretty fast and tough to hit on average. This makes scrambling important, as golfers aren’t going to be hitting 85% of greens like we see in some of these birdiefests. Course history has been very predictive here over the years, so experience at Quail Hollow is certainly a positive this week.
To sum up the course fit, I’m looking for golfers who are long off the tee, excel with their mid and long irons and are good scramblers.
- Starting bankroll: $1,000
- Last week: -$100
- Current bankroll: $515
2024 Wells Fargo Championship Predictions
2024 Wells Fargo Championship Outright Bets
Wyndham Clark to Win +1600 (FanDuel)
Bet $20 to Pay $340
Winning an event in back-to-back years certainly isn’t unheard of. This was essentially the starting point of Clark becoming one of the best golfers in the world. He won here and then went on to win the U.S. Open and the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
For whatever reason, he has saved his best golf for the Signature Events this year. In addition to winning at Pebble, he finished second at the Arnold Palmer Invitation, second at THE PLAYERS Championship and tied for third at the RBC Heritage in his last start. He’s a bomber off the tee and doesn’t have a single weakness in his game.
He has similar win equity as Xander Schauffele and Rory McIlroy, yet we are getting him at much better odds.
Cameron Young to Win +2800 (BetRivers)
Bet $20 to Pay $580
I am a firm believer that Young’s first win on Tour is going to come on a championship-level golf course. He tends to play his best on long and difficult golf courses, which is why he has such a strong track record in the majors. He has 10 top-10 finishes in his career, and seven of those have been runner-up finishes. He certainly knows how to win, as he won twice on the Korn Ferry Tour before getting his PGA Tour card.
With his talent, it’s only a matter of time before he picks up that first win. I’m hoping it comes this week at Quail Hollow, where he played the Presidents Cup in the fall of 2022. He’s a perfect fit for the course, as his biggest strengths are distance off the tee and approach play with his mid and long irons.
2024 Wells Fargo Championship Placement Bets
Xander Schauffele Top 10 +115 (bet365)
Bet $30 to Pay $65
Schauffele is the top golfer in my model this week, but I’ve been around long enough to know it’s better to take the safer route with him. He puts himself in contention a lot but rarely closes the door on Sunday. Rather than being frustrated again with him not winning on a Sunday, I will bet him to finish in the top 10 at +115 odds.
He’s already accomplished this feat in six of nine starts this season and is only competing against 68 other golfers this week. He doesn’t have a weakness in his game and seems to like Quail Hollow. He was dominant here at the Presidents Cup and has tied for and 14th in the last two stroke-play events here.
Adam Scott Top 10 +360 (FanDuel)
Bet $30 to Pay $138
Scott was on my outright card last week in Texas. While he was nowhere near contention, he had a decent week and gained 6.3 strokes ball-striking.
As I mentioned last week, his statistics have been all over the place this year. One week he’ll strike it well, and the next week the short game will show up. If he can get all four parts of the game on the same page, he should find himself back in contention soon. He tends to play these classical golf courses extremely well and finished in a tie for fifth here last year.
