Over the last three years, Las Vegas has been the spot for a player at huge odds to come through.
Last year, Rod Pampling broke a 10-year drought on the PGA Tour by holding off Brooks Koepka and cashing at 275-1. The two years prior to that, Smylie Kaufman (200-1) and Ben Martin (175-1) earned their first, and to date only, victories.
A celebration years in the making.
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) November 1, 2017
TPC Summerlin is spot where a player needs to catch fire with the putter to reach that 20-under mark. With easy greens and generous roughs, more players are hitting a large number of greens, giving some weaker tee-to-green guys like Pampling a chance here.
I’ve targeted seven guys in the triple digits who have a few things in their favor that I like.
First up is Brandon Hagy at 110-1. This is a course that rewards guys who are aggressive with the driver, and Hagy fits that role as well as anyone. He missed some time with an injury but returned last week with an 18th at Sanderson Farms, so I think he’s worth a play.
Next, I’ve targeted a trio of guys at 125-1. Aaron Wise, Hunter Mahan and Ben Silverman all played well last week. Mahan has been in the top 20 through his first 20 tournaments and is at his best with the driver in his hand. Silverman closed the Web season hot and cashed a top 10 for us last week. I’ve backed off guys too quickly in the past, but with such a nice price, I re-up on Silverman. Wise has local ties with his swing coach working out of TPC Summerlin. He also finished 10th here a year ago with no PGA Tour status.
Further down the board, I’ve got three guys in the 200-plus range. First from that group is Beau Hossler at 200-1. Hossler was in the mix through three rounds at the Sanderson Farms and played a great front nine, but he missed four birdie looks inside 10 feet before sliding outside the top five. He’s too talented of a player to be at this big of a number in this field. The others are Adam Schenk (250-1) and Sam Ryder (300-1). Both are rated highly from my preseason Web grad power rankings that weighed driving distance quite heavily. I think they both have a chance to make their first real impact on the PGA Tour at this stop.
Full Card (Units)
Charley Hoffman 40-1 (.85)
Kevin Streelman 45-1 (.8)
Jaime Lovemark 55-1 (.6)
Scott Piercy 70-1 (.5)
Brandon Hagy 110-1 (.35)
Aaron Wise 125-1 (.3)
Ben Silverman 125-1 (.3)
Hunter Mahan 125-1 (.3)
Beau Hossler 200-1 (.25)
Adam Schenk 250-1 (.125)
Sam Ryder 300-1 (.1)
Top 5s on all but Ryder
Sam Ryder +1250 (1)
Joshua has spent the last five years writing about sports and the last 10 years betting them, mostly on golf. He’s one of approximately five people who will watch the PGA over the NFL in November. Follow him on Twitter @JoshuaPerry22
Photo: © Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports