Henrik Stenson has been the favorite at the Wyndham Championship since the opening tee shot, but Saturday saw the Swede finally establish himself atop the leaderboard.
Stenson will head into the final round as the +160 favorite thanks to a one-shot lead over Webb Simpson (+350), Ollie Schniederjans (+500) and Kevin Na (+550).
With Johnson Wagner the only other player within three shots, the winner is likely coming from that quartet.
The course is playing easy and the leaders won’t back up, but the lack of par 5s limit the chance for an extremely low score. With that said, there have been two 61s this week, so the number is out there.
I won’t be adding anyone heading into the final round, but if someone wanted a longshot to fire on, I’d look at Anirban Lahiri at 80/1. He’s five back and is a really streaky player. If someone were to shoot a round in the very low 60s and steal this, he’d be my guess.
Looking back on the plays, neither Ryan Moore or Russell Knox made the run I was looking for on Saturday. Moore has hit the ball as well as anyone this week, but out of the 74 players to survive the secondary cut after the third round, he ranks 73rd in Strokes Gained: Putting. I’ll be targeting him again next week and hope different greens fit his eye a little better.
The matchup plays have been keeping our head above water. The Simpson/Moore parlay cashed pretty easily at +102. Simpson beat Ryan Armour by four shots and Moore handled Rick Lamb by four as well thanks to this disaster by Lamb on No. 11.
— John Carvalho (@John_P_Carvalho) August 19, 2017
That parlay puts us up 9.57 units on matchups for the week, which cancels out most of the damage of not having a winner get home. Vaughn Taylor is still in the running for a top 20 at +750, but had a disastrous 74 to fall from 4th to 33rd. He’ll probably need a 65 or 66 in the final round to jump back up there.
I won’t be making any other plays on this tournament. For the final round, a lot of the hot putters I want to fade and cold putters I want to back are paired with each other, so I don’t see the value there.
We’ll end the week 4.5-.5 in matchups with Thursday’s Chez Reavie split as the half loss. Now we’ll wait and see if Taylor has a good round in him that can make this week a winner.
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Joshua has spent the last five years writing about sports and the last 10 years betting them, mostly on golf. One of approximately five people who will watch the PGA over the NFL in November. Follow him on Twitter @JoshuaPerry22
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