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Adon7x’s Favorite First-Round Leader Bets for Byron Nelson: Back to the Well with Keith Mitchell

May 09, 2019 9:03 PM EDT
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John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Keith Mitchell

  • Adon7x runs through his favorite First-Round Leader bets for the AT&T Byron Nelson, which gets underway on Thursday, May 9.
  • Windier conditions in the afternoon on Thursday suggests there could be in edge in focusing on golfers teeing off in the morning wave.

This week the PGA tour stops in Dallas for the AT&T Byron Nelson at Trinity Forest Golf Club. This is storm season in Texas, and the Metroplex has had its fair share of severe weather in the past month. More rain and storms are in the forecast leading up to Thursday, so expect another year of relatively low scoring.

Lucky for us, we only care about what the forecast is like on Thursday, as this article will focus solely on the best First Round Leader value bets. (For more thoughts on my general strategy with FRL wagers, be sure to check out my intro piece here.) As of this writing, it looks like Round 1 will be one of the nicer days of the week.

But I do see the potential for a draw bias on Thursday with sustained winds picking up in the afternoon, so I will be backing the morning wave for my First Round Leader selections. (If you’re interested in keeping close tabs on the wind forecast, I use Windfinder Superforecast, my go-to source for monitoring wind wherever the PGA Tour takes us.)

Now let’s get to my seven favorite FRL bets of the week.


>> Download The Action Network App to follow all of my bets and get alerts whenever I make a pick.


Keith Mitchell

Odds: 40-1 (.25u)

Mitchell has been a FRL fan favorite since he arrived on tour,  cashing multiple tickets for us in the past. He is known for crushing driver off the tee, but he has been rolling the ball nicely on the greens since his win at Honda and seemed to enjoy Trinity Forest last year, finishing T-3.

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