2018 British Open: Is Red-Hot Francesco Molinari Worth a Bet?

Jul 12, 2018 10:00 AM EDT

For analysis of the top 90 golfers in the British Open field, check out this page. “Best odds value” and “Best matchup value” listed below are determined by a proprietary model built by Colin Davy. It factors in the course, plus a variety of weighted metrics and the betting odds (via Bovada). This isn’t meant to imply every player is worth a bet; we’re simply showing the most efficient way to wager on each golfer should you so choose.


Francesco Molinari’s British Open Odds

DFS Pricing: $8,600 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel

British Open History (2013-17): T-9, T-15, T-40, T-36, MC

Odds: +3300 to win, +200 top-10 finish, +110 top-20 finish, -450 to make cut, +300 to miss cut

Best Odds Value: +3300 to win

Best Matchup Value: Molinari (-140) over Sergio Garcia (Sportsbook.ag)

Tee Times: 8:26 a.m. ET (Thursday), 3:25 a.m. ET (Friday)

For more British Open betting and DFS coverage, follow @ActionNetGolf on Twitter and subscribe to The Action Network Golf podcast.


The Outlook

Few golfers have been riding a heater like Molinari over the past few weeks. He has a win in Europe and a win on the PGA Tour in the past two months, and, as I’m writing this, he’s putting together another solid week at the John Deere Classic. I have him on my betting card at 57-1, but that number is long gone. I’d focus more on fantasy over an outright bet in the mid-30s at this point.


The Metrics

Here’s how Molinari ranks in the British Open field in several key metrics. For many more, be sure to check out the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

  • Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: T-14th
  • Recent Adjusted Round Score: 2nd
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 2nd
  • Long-Term Greens in Regulation: T-39th
  • Strokes Gained: Approach: 18th
  • Long-Term Putts Per Round: T-76th

Want more British Open coverage? Check out this page for tips on the 90 best golfers in the field.

Credit:

Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

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