2018 British Open: Boom-or-Bust Jon Rahm Could Find Danger at Carnoustie

Jul 12, 2018 9:55 AM EDT

For analysis of the top 90 golfers in the British Open field, check out this page. “Best odds value” and “Best matchup value” listed below are determined by a proprietary model built by Colin Davy. It factors in the course, plus a variety of weighted metrics and the betting odds (via Bovada). This isn’t meant to imply every player is worth a bet; we’re simply showing the most efficient way to wager on each golfer should you so choose.


Jon Rahm’s British Open Odds

DFS Pricing: $9,800 DraftKings, $11,300 FanDuel

British Open History (2013-17): N/A, N/A, N/A, T-59, T-44

Odds: +2200 to win, +160 top-10 finish, -110 top-20 finish, -500 to make cut, +335 to miss cut

Best Odds Value: +2200 to win

Best Matchup Value: Rahm (+110) over Rory McIlroy (Sportsbook.ag)

Tee Times: 5:09 a.m. ET (Thursday), 10:10 a.m. ET (Friday)

For more British Open betting and DFS coverage, follow @ActionNetGolf on Twitter and subscribe to The Action Network Golf podcast.


The Outlook

Rahm is going to win multiple majors in his career, but I’m not sure the breakthrough will come at a course like Carnoustie. He has the tendency to put up some really big numbers that can derail a good round. Meanwhile, few courses have as much danger lurking as Carnoustie. If I’m going to back someone at 20-1 or lower, I’d want a little more consistency in strong fields than what Rahm has shown early in his career.


The Metrics

Here’s how Rahm ranks in the British Open field in several key metrics. For many more, be sure to check out the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

  • Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: T-7th
  • Recent Adjusted Round Score: T-42nd
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 17th
  • Long-Term Greens in Regulation: T-29th
  • Strokes Gained: Approach: 63rd
  • Long-Term Putts Per Round: T-24th

Want more British Open coverage? Check out this page for tips on the 90 best golfers in the field.

Credit:

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jon Rahm

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