2018 British Open: Why Phil Mickelson May Not Be a Factor Come Sunday

Jul 11, 2018 4:56 PM EDT

For analysis of the top 90 golfers in the British Open field, check out this page. “Best odds value” and “Best matchup value” listed below are determined by a proprietary model built by Colin Davy. It factors in the course, plus a variety of weighted metrics and the betting odds (via Bovada). This isn’t meant to imply every player is worth a bet; we’re simply showing the most efficient way to wager on each golfer should you so choose.


Phil Mickelson’s British Open Odds

DFS Pricing: $8,100 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel

British Open History (2013-17): WIN, T-23, T-20, 2, MC

Odds: +6600 to win, +400 top-10 finish, +200 top-20 finish, -275 to make cut, +200 to miss cut

Best Odds Value: +200 top-20 finish

Best Matchup Value: N/A

Tee Times: 3:03 a.m. ET (Thursday), 8:04 a.m. ET (Friday)

For more British Open betting and DFS coverage, follow @ActionNetGolf on Twitter and subscribe to The Action Network Golf podcast.


The Outlook

Phil’s prep for the Open Championship didn’t start off the way he would have liked, with a missed cut at the Scottish Open. His brilliant start to this season has cooled off lately, too, with his last three events being a 48th, 65th, and a MC. I don’t read as much into that, as I think Phil’s attention span seems to dwindle during non-majors or tournaments where he is not in contention, but it is notable.

On paper, Carnoustie does not represent the type of set-up to favor Mickelson, with accuracy off the tee being at a premium. His short game prowess allows him to put together rounds even when wayward off the tee, and that will pay dividends at Carnoustie, where even the best ball-strikers will miss greens due to the firmness of the course and the winds expected. I expect Phil to make the cut but not be much of a factor on Sunday, as this course is one of the tougher driving courses on the Open rotation.


The Metrics

Here’s how Mickelson ranks in the British Open field in several key metrics. For many more, be sure to check out the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

  • Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: T-19th
  • Recent Adjusted Round Score: T-60th
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 45th
  • Long-Term Greens in Regulation: 119th
  • Strokes Gained: Approach: 13th
  • Long-Term Putts Per Round: 2nd

Want more British Open coverage? Check out this page for tips on the 90 best golfers in the field.

Credit:

Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Phil Mickelson

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