Perry’s Safeway Open Betting Guide: Can Sungjae Im Find Redemption at Silverado?
Sungjae Im put together an impressive rookie campaign on the PGA Tour. Orlando Ramirez, USA TODAY Sports.
- The Safeway Open begins Thursday Sept. 26 at the Silverado Country Club in Napa Ca.
- Joshua Perry analyzes the betting board
The PGA tour heads to California this week for the Safeway Open.
This tournament is one of the more difficult events to find a winner because there really isn’t any clear-cut skill-set that tends to thrive here.
We can just look at last year’s playoff with Kevin Tway, Ryan Moore and Brandt Snedeker to see the variety of styles that can work.
Tway’s biggest asset is his length off the tee. Moore isn’t that long and struggles with the putter, but can be lights out with the irons. Snedeker isn’t really a great ball-striker, but has one of the best short games on tour.
After 72 holes, all three found a way to use their strengths to reach the top of the leaderboard.
All odds below as of Tuesday morning, for updated odds check out PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
In these spots, I’ll tend to go lighter with card before the event and add a couple guys I like live once I see they’re playing well.
Silverado Country Club is on the shorter side for a par 72, checking in at 7,166 yards. The winner usually gets in the mid-teens under par.
We haven’t seen anyone break that 20-under par mark yet despite the lack of length on a par 72. There is a little water in play in a couple of spots and some testy rough that can cause problems for the players.
One thing to remember is the putting surface. It’s the first time the players will see West Coast Poa greens in quite awhile. Strokes gained putting can fluctuate quite a bit, but some players simply don’t like this surface so it’ll be important to check those numbers.
It probably won’t identify a winner, but it could save you money on guys who pop up because of the ball striking numbers.
Justin Thomas headlines this field and opened at a +650 favorite. Patrick Cantlay is next in line at +1000 with Adam Scott and Hideki Matsuyama close behind at +1600. None of them have teed it up since the Tour Championship, so there’s a little too much risk with rust to back any of them to win outright.
We will make a rare play in this range though with Sungjae Im at +2200. Im lost in a playoff last week and gained strokes in all four aspects for the first time since the Canadian Open in June.
He missed the playoff here last season by a shot, finishing fourth so he likes the course and the all-around game appears to be dialed in.
This has been the spot to find winner’s here in recent years. Tway, Emiliano Grillo and Brendan Steele were all in that +4000 to +5000 sweet spot in their wins over the past four years.
We’ll go with Bronson Burgoon here at +6600. Burgoon has a couple top 20s in the first two events of the fall swing. Those come on the heels of two other top 20s in the Korn Ferry Tour playoffs that allowed him to retain tour status this season. The game is in good enough shape to contend here.
Harry Higgs is a guy I like in this range at 200-1. Higgs had a top-20 finish at Greenbrier before missing the cut last week, but he still gained strokes off the tee and with the approach. The short game just struggled. We don’t have a lot of data on the rookie yet, but maybe the shift off Bermuda to Poa will suit him better.
We’ll also go with Zac Blair here at 300-1. Blair missed the cut the last two weeks but gained strokes with his ball striking a week ago. He’s one of the best putter out there and has a few solid finishes on this course.
His Korn Ferry Tour win this summer was also in California. The Utah native has played a lot of West Coast golf and with this being one of the shorter par 72s, his lack of length will be mitigated to some extent.
The Safeway Card
- Sungjae Im +2200 (1.5 units)
- Bronson Burgoon +6600 (.5 units)
- Harry Higgs +20000 (.17units)
- Zac Blair +30000 (.11 units)
Total Stake: 2.28 units