2021 Wyndham Championship Preview, Picks & Prediction: Which Stats Matter at Sedgefield Country Club?

2021 Wyndham Championship Preview, Picks & Prediction: Which Stats Matter at Sedgefield Country Club? article feature image

YOSHI IWAMOTO/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Rory Sabbatini

  • The PGA TOUR heads to Sedgefield Country Club for the final tournament before the FedEx Cup playoffs.
  • Some of the biggest names are taking the tournament off for a final bit of rest, but there's still plenty of compelling players looking to close the season on a high.
  • Matt Vincenzi lays out his four best bets for the tournament and key stats to know

The PGA TOUR makes it's final regular season stop this week as we head to Sedgefield Country Club to play the 2021 Wyndham Championship. Located in Greensboro, N.C., the course opened in 1926 and was renovated in 2007.

Sedgefield Country Club is a Par 70 measuring 7,127 yards. A Donald Ross design, the course features fast rolling bermudagrass greens.

The Wyndham Championship will play host to 156 golfers this week, many of whom will be looking punch a ticket to The Northern Trust; where the top 125 players in the FedEx Cup rankings will earn a spot. With many golfers having their spot locked up for the FedEx Cup playoffs, the field isn't particularly impressive this week. However, we will see the likes of Webb Simpson, Hideki Matsuyama, Patrick Reed, Will Zalatoris and Jason Kokrak in Greensboro.

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Past Winners at The Wyndham Championship

  • 2020: Jim Herman (-21)
  • 2019: J.T. Poston (-22)
  • 2018: Brandt Snedeker (-21)
  • 2017: Henrik Stenson (-22)
  • 2016: Si Woo Kim (-21)

5 Key Stats For Sedgefield Country Club

Let's take a look at five key metrics for Sedgefield Country Club to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Approach rates out as the most important statistic for Sedgefield. Being a relatively short course with easy to hit fairways, it is most definitely a second shot golf course.

SG: App Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Hideki Matsuyama (+28.5) (+1400)
  2. Louis Oosthuizen (+24.7) (+1600)
  3. Michael Gellerman (+24.4) (+40000)
  4. Kyle Stanley (+22.6) (+13000)
  5. Cameron Percy (+20.9)(+25000)

2. Birdie or Better: Gained

Many will remember Brandt Snedeker shooting a 59 here back in 2018. It is necessary for golfers to go low here at some point in the four rounds and birdie makers tend to play very well at Sedgefield.

Birdie or Better: Gained Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Patton Kizzire (+24.1) (+7000)
  2. Seamus Power (+23.0) (+4500)
  3. Jason Kokrak (+18.9) (+2200)
  4. Jhonnatan Vegas (+18.7) (+6000)
  5. Hank Lebioda (+18.2) (+7000)

3. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda and Fast)

Very good putters tend to be very successful at Sedgefield Country Club. The Bermudagrass greens will be very fast and should favor golfers who have had success on that type of surface.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda and Fast) Past 24 rounds:

  1. Denny McCarthy (+26.4) (+30000)
  2. Rickie Fowler (+24.7) (+5500)
  3. Patton Kizzire (+24.0) (+7000)
  4. Brendon Todd (+23.2) (+10000)
  5. JT Poston (+21.8) (+8000)

4. Par 4: 400-450

The most common par-4 distance on the course will be from 400-450. There are eight holes of this length at Sedgefield Country Club which is quite a large amount compared to other courses on TOUR.

Par 4: 400-450 Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Hank Lebioda (+15.6) (+7000)
  2. Kramer Hickok (+15.5) (+15000)
  3. Zach Johnson (+13.6) (+7000)
  4. Kevin Streelman (+11.9) (+5000)
  5. Ryan Armour (+11.6) (+10000)

5. Strokes Gained: Total (Donald Ross Designs)

Donald Ross designs have challenging green complexes and a unique feel to them. We often see golfers who excel at Donald Ross designs do so on a regular basis throughout their career.

Strokes Gained: Total (Donald Ross Designs) Over Past 36 Rounds:

  1. Webb Simpson (+41.3) (+1000)
  2. Justin Rose (+37.3) (+7000)
  3. Rory Sabbatini (+34.6) (+13000)
  4. Chris Kirk (+33.1) (+8000)
  5. Ryan Armour (+28.3) (+10000)

Wyndham Championship Model Rankings

Below, I've compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Birdie or Better (22%%), SG: Putting Bermuda Fast (18.4%), SG: Donald Ross (18.4%), and Par 4: 400-450 (14.3%).

  1. Patton Kizzire (+7000)
  2. Seamus Power (+4500)
  3. Scott Stallings (+13000)
  4. Jason Kokrak (+2200)
  5. Webb Simpson (+1000)
  6. Charl Schwartzel (+4500)
  7. Brandt Snedeker (+5500)
  8. Zach Johnson (+7000)
  9. Brian Harman (+2200)
  10. Ryan Armour (+10000)
Julio Aguilar/Getty Images. Pictured: Charl Schwartzel

Wyndham Championship Best Bets

Charl Schwartzel (+4500, DraftKings): Charl Schwartzel is finishing up one of his best seasons in recent memory and ranks 45th in the FedEx Cup standings. Coming off of a runner-up finish at the 3M Open, the South African returns to a course this week where he has had some success including a third-place finish in 2015.

Charl has been an inconsistent putter throughout his career but ranks seventh in this field in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast bermudagrass greens in his past 24 rounds.

Sedgefield Country Club has been a spot on the schedule where veterans have had some resurgent wins and feels like a spot where the 36-year-old could get it done.

Patton Kizzire (+7000, Bet365): The previous five winners of the Wyndham Championship had a winning score of -21 or better. If you want to win at Sedgefield, you better be making birdies in bunches. Patton Kizzire is a golfer who does just that: In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 1st in the field in Birdies or Better: Gained.

The 35-year-old has certainly been known to mix in a few bogeys, but there really isn't too much trouble that he can get into at Sedgefield. Kizzire is a bermudagrass specialist and also enjoys fast greens where he ranks third in the field. His ability to make a ton of birdies and get scorching hot with the putter makes him the perfect type of golfer to target this week at an excellent price.

Ryan Moore (+10000, DraftKings): Another TOUR veteran who has shown some signs of a potential resurgence of late is Ryan Moore. Moore finished 2nd last month at the John Deere Classic and did so by gaining 7.3 strokes from tee to green. Although he missed the cut in his following start at the 3M Open, he stilled gained 3.3 strokes on approach which mitigates a bit of the concern. At his best, Moore is a sharp iron player who can get really hot with the approach play.

Sedgefield Country Club is a great track for his skillset, and that has been proven in the past as the veteran boasts some impressive course history. In addition to a win in 2009, Moore has two additional top 10's at the course with his most recent coming in 2018 (6th). The Wyndham Championship is a good fit at the right price for the 38-year-old.

Rory Sabbatini (+13000, DraftKings): Rory Sabbatini has a few reasons to be extremely confident heading into the Wyndham Championship. His most recent round of golf was one of the most impressive in recent memory and took place on the world stage. Sabbs shot 61 in the final round to claim the silver medal, and finish just one shot behind gold medalist Xander Schauffele.

Another reason Sabbatini should enter the week with some confidence is his excellent course history. He has a top-six finish in three of his past five trips to Greensboro with his most recent coming in 2019 (6th). The 45 year old has been a Donald Ross design specialist throughout his career and ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Ross designs in his past 36 rounds.

Prior to the Olympics, there is no doubt that Sabbs was struggling; but both his confidence and comfortability should be sky high this week and that can make all the difference in golf.

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