Cubs vs. Mets Odds & Betting Predictions - June 22, 2026

Senga returned from a lengthy absence due to spine and arm injuries and looked a bit rusty against the Reds, but the underlying metrics were actually encouraging. His expected K rate landed right in the 25% range, which is exactly where we’d expect him to be, making him a sneaky buy-low candidate. His forkball remains one of the best putaway pitches in baseball, and the increased cutter usage against right-handed hitters should help him maintain, if not improve upon, that 24-25% strikeout baseline. This matchup sets up well for him. Senga has historically posted much stronger strikeout numbers at home and against right-handed hitters, both larger splits than you’d typically see. He’s also faced a tougher schedule than most this season while seeing roughly an even split of righties and lefties and only 2 of his 6 starts have been at home. Tonight the Cubs are sending six right-handed hitters to the plate and he’ll get the benefit of pitching at home. Senga’s strikeout upside is unlocked when hitters chase pitches outside the zone. He has only generated a 25% chase rate so far this season, which is a career low. On paper the Cubs don’t look like a great matchup because they rank 7th-lowest in chase rate, but even getting them up to their season average would be a meaningful boost to his expected strikeout rate from where he’s been so far. This feels like a great buy-low spot. I’m only projecting him for around 85 pitches after throwing 82 in his last outing, but there’s also a chance the leash gets extended into the 90+ range tonight. That would only add to the upside. Proj this closer to -140