Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals Odds & Betting Predictions - June 23, 2026

Eduardo Rodriguez is the definition of a fraud, and I’m thrilled to fade him here. His 2.45 ERA looks good until you find out he has a 4.92 xERA buried underneath it. A gap of nearly two and a half runs is the perfect example of a pitcher pitching over his head and being due for regression. Rodriguez’s other estimators also sit around 4.5. He’s simply gotten lucky for far too long. The Cardinals offense ranks 7th in wRC+ versus left handed pitching and is striking out just 17% of the time against lefties, the second best mark in the league. Rodriguez has a really tough matchup tonight considering he’s striking out only 17.9% of hitters. I think St. Louis jumps on him early. I don't need to overthink the other side. Kyle Leahy is a converted reliever making his first real go at it as a starter. Leahy has a brutal .296 xBA and ranks in the worst percentile in baseball in hard hit rate. He’s simply not very good, and his 1.57 WHIP isn’t ideal either. The Diamondbacks offense has been bad this season, but there’s no excuse here. Both bullpens rank outside the top 15 in ERA and are regressing quickly, especially Arizona’s bullpen. The St. Louis bullpen is also heavily worked right now and likely won’t have its best arms available. This total is just too low. Our model makes the fair total 11.2 runs. Give me the over 8.5.

(B365) Despite having an ERA two runs worse, Kyle Leahy has slightly better estimators than Eduardo Rodriguez because he has been much better (3.71 SIERA) over the last month. ERod's 86.1 LOB% massively unsustainable. Pitchers have the same pitch modeling. Crazy number...85. That's ARI wRC+ on the road, vs RHP, their proj. LU against RHP and their proj. LU over the last 30 days. Not an average of 85. They are ALL 85. STL 103/103/112/127.