Red Sox vs. Yankees Odds & Betting Predictions - October 1, 2025

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This is not a spot I can trust Brayan Bello. He’s been good this season, but his underlying metrics present some concern. Bello currently has a 3.35 ERA, but a 4.42 xERA, 4.19 FIP, 4.39 xFIP, and 4.55 SIERA. He’s been fortunate this season, largely due to his .268 BABIP and 75.3% left-on-base percentage. Considering his career BABIP of .305, that .268 mark is unlikely to be sustainable. Bello is also posting a career low botERA, Stuff+, and Pitching+ grade. His fastball is his only above average pitch, and he’s striking out just 17.7% of batters. The one concern with the Yankees offense is their strikeout rate, which is why it’s important to target pitchers with low strikeout rates against them. Speaking of the Yankees offense, this unit is elite and has a much better lineup out tonight. New York has the best offense in baseball with a 119 wRC+ and has been smoking the ball over the last month. I will say, Bello has been sharp against the Yankees this season, but this is a whole new challenge. Bello has never pitched in the postseason before, and this is a very tough environment and spot to make your postseason debut. I was a big advocate of fading Carlos Rodón last season, but this is a totally different pitcher. Rodon is an entirely different pitcher this season and he’s currently having the best season of his career since leaving the Giants. He’s cleaned up his home run problem with just a 2.8% home run rate compared to 4.2% and 5.2% in the two previous seasons. His fastball went from a liability pitch to one of the best in baseball, with a 12 run value that ranks in the 91st percentile. Rodón’s fastball is getting 4.2 inches of horizontal break compared to just 2.5 inches last year, and that’s significantly improved his ground ball rate to 44% compared to just 34.6% last season. His .215 xBA is excellent, and he’s been great when facing the Red Sox lineup. Across 132 plate appearances against Rodón, the Red Sox are hitting just .228. As mentioned yesterday, since Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer went down with injuries, the Red Sox offense ranks just 22nd in the league with an 86 wRC+. I’ll avoid the New York bullpen and will take the Yankees F5 innings -.5.

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@Zerillo https://myaction.app/irmZJtM46Wb

Bet to -120

Bet to -118