Rockies vs. Marlins Odds & Betting Predictions - June 3, 2025

Dollander is the newest member of Club 17 (priority score +17.5), which has gone 13-3 on the season. His 22.1% K rate through 8 starts doesn’t jump off the page — but context is everything. Half his games have been at Coors (death for Ks), and his four road starts were against the D-backs, Rangers, Royals, and Padres. Brutal. Adjusted for matchup and park, I have his expected K rate closer to 23.4%. He’s been far more effective on the road (+9% K rate away from Coors — standard for Rockies starters), and this matchup vs. Miami might be his softest yet. The Marlins aren’t a pushover, but they’re much closer to league average, and today’s lineup skews very favorably for him. Dollander has shown sharp platoon splits, striking out RHB at an +8.5% higher rate. So far 48% of his batters faced have been RHB — today it jumps to 67% with 6 righties in the lineup. That’s a significant edge. Another angle I love: I have him getting pulled around the 4th or 5th hitter third time through, and the Marlins lineup is much more K-heavy up top. I project the top 4 hitters to have a +5% higher K rate than the bottom 5. The 8–9 hitters are actually his toughest K chances, which is a rare lineup quirk — and it works in his favor. I’m projecting this closer to -240 to clear 3.5. Also like the 5+ (+145) — I have that closer to -120.