Angels vs Pirates Odds & Pick: Why to Bet the Underdog

The Los Angeles Angels have already been stricken with bad luck with Miguel Sanó, Anthony Rendon and Mike Trout all on the Injured List. They are also cellar dwellers in the American League West. They will face the Pittsburgh Pirates on Wednesday, who will send Martín Pérez to the mound.

No, the Los Angeles Angels are not an offensive juggernaut, but Pérez does not have encouraging peripherals and has been the recipient of favorable outcomes.

The Pirates play at home, but the Angels have enough to win this game both offensively and with José Soriano on the bump.

Let's dive into the Los Angeles Angels vs. Pittsburgh Pirates odds and make a pick in our MLB betting preview for Wednesday, May 8.

Soriano is only 25 years old and has been elite at keeping the ball on the ground as he ranks in the 93rd percentile, which is much better than Pérez.

Soriano essentially just throws the ball hard. He does not manufacture an inordinate number of strikeouts, but walks have been an issue. Last year in limited innings, he was striking out over 30% of batters. He does allow some hard contact, but with his Ground-ball Rate being elite, this is not as much of a concern.

The Angels lost a few of the offensive contributors they had to injuries. They have five batters eclipsing a .340 xwOBA off of lefties and two others above .300. Overall, they own an average wRC+ and 9.3% Walk Rate.

Pérez is not going to blow them away, and neither will the Bucs’ relief staff, so the Angels could break out of this offensive slump.

In relief, the Angels have four active arms below a 4.00 xFIP. This doesn't seem like much, but Soriano has started to make it past five innings and could do so here again.

They do tend to issue walks with a Walk Rate over 10%, but they have enough options if Soriano can continue his decent showings.

Pérez, meanwhile, is due to regress.

The 33-year-old southpaw may not walk many hitters, but he rarely strikes any out. In addition, his Average Exit Velocity is over 90 MPH with a Hard-hit Rate in the 10th percentile while allowing more fly balls and liners than grounders. This has led his 3.15 ERA to be somewhat of a farce because his xERA is over 5.00.

Even though he is facing a strapped Angels lineup, they have a few batters who could give him issues.

The Bucs also are not hitting righties well at all with their 76 wRC+ and 9.9% Walk Rate off of righties this season. They do have four batters above a .340 xwOBA and a few others above .300. There's just not enough here to back the Pirates against a better starting pitcher with Pérez going for Pittsburgh.

The Pirates’ relief staff is slightly better than Los Angeles’, but they have one more arm below a 4.00 xFIP at this time.

Again, Pérez is starting, and he may not give up free passes, but he can be forced out of the game via hard contact. This could strain Pittsburgh’s relief staff and even the differences between the two bullpens.

Soriano is the better starting pitcher in this game and should keep the ball on the ground. The same cannot be said about Pérez, who is due for regression.

Pittsburgh’s bullpen and lineup are not enough to overcome what could be a bumpy appearance for Pérez. The Angels may seem depleted, but Jo Adell and Taylor Ward have been bright spots who can provide an offensive boost against Pérez.

Take the Angels from +114 on the moneyline down to -105.

Pick: Angels Moneyline +114 (Bet to -105)