MLB Odds, Picks: Angels vs Rangers Prediction Today
Sam Hodde/Getty Images. Pictured: Nathaniel Lowe
Angels vs. Rangers Odds
-102 / -120
-102 / -120
With the Angels nipping at the Rangers' heels, 5.5 games back in the division, Thursday's series finale between the two teams holds lots of significance in the standings.
A matchup between respective aces certainly fits the bill. Shohei Ohtani will look to build upon his 3.32 ERA across 76 innings in a matchup versus Nate Eovaldi.
Eovaldi has been everything Rangers fans could have hoped for thus far, pitching to a dominant 2.49 ERA across 86 2/3 innings.
As a pitcher, Shohei Ohtani has hit a bit of a hiccup in terms of his results of late. He has pitched to an ERA of 4.20 over his last 33 innings, with a WHIP of 1.12. His expected rates have ticked up over those outings, too, and it does appear to be slightly more than a run of bad luck.
Those numbers have come against a tougher-than-average slate of offenses versus right-handed pitching, but tonight's game is as tough as it gets on that front versus the Rangers.
Ohtani has pitched to a 3.35 xERA and 3.48 xFIP. His Stuff+ rating is still incredible at 133, but a lesser command at times has become more of a concern, particularly of late.
Offensively, Ohtani has been on an absurd tear. In the month of June he has slugged .904, with an 1.404 OPS. His play has led an Angels team which has been in strong form at the plate recently with a 110 wRC+ and .332 WOBA.
The Texas lineup has been downright scary, and it should be at full strength in tonight's matchup. Over the last 30 days, the Rangers have put up the top wRC+ in baseball by a wide margin at 128. Not only do they possess a ton of power, but they own a BB/K ratio of 0.43.
They own the second highest wRC+ in the league in splits versus right-handed pitching at 117.
Nathaniel Lowe could be a particular name to watch in Thursday's matchup coming off of his first rest day of the season. Lowe has hit .316 in 16 at-bats versus Ohtani, with two home runs.
He has hit sharply better at home with a .286 batting average and has been significantly better versus right-handed pitching with an .831 OPS.
Angels vs. Rangers Betting Pick
Texas has been as good as it gets in baseball versus right-handed pitching, and it could find a way to do some damage off of Ohtani in a game with a total of 8.5.
Lowe has hit Ohtani well historically, which is not surprising considering his splits. We might not see Lowe at +140 to record two bases too often, and I believe that is a strong number to see if he can continue his strong work versus Ohtani.
+220 for Lowe to record an RBI is also interesting pending confirmation of the Rangers' official lineup. Obviously, I see him as a great candidate to do damage, but I also like the chances he could see Corey Seager get into scoring position.
On top of that, RBI bets are simply better when you believe teams will bat past their team total, and I do think Texas is going to find a way to get four-plus in this tough matchup.