The Philadelphia Phillies (18-14) host the Arizona Diamondbacks (17-15) on Saturday, May 3, 2025. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on ARID.
Find my Diamondbacks vs Phillies prediction for Saturday below.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction
- Diamondbacks vs Phillies pick: Over 9.5 (-103, BetRivers | Play to -110)
My Diamondbacks vs Phillies best bet for Saturday is the game total to go OVER 9.5. Check our live MLB odds page to find the best odds.
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Odds, Spread, Total
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -195 | 9.5 -115o / -106u | +102 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 9.5 -115o / -106u | -120 |
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) | Stat | RHP Aaron Nola (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | W-L | 0-5 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 2.78 / 5.01 | ERA /xERA | 5.40 / 4.54 |
| 3.93 / 3.34 | FIP / xFIP | 4.29 / 3.56 |
| 1.12 | WHIP | 1.40 |
| 16.2 | K-BB% | 16.7 |
| 47.6 | GB% | 43.4 |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 105 |
| 109 | Location+ | 106 |
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Preview, Prediction
Diamondbacks Betting Preview: Bullpen Concerns
The Arizona Diamondbacks enter this matchup two games over .500 after dropping the series opener last night.
While their bats were quiet during Friday's 3-2 loss, they shouldn't be on Saturday.
Arizona has been a sneaky good lineup, ranking 12th among MLB teams in Expected wOBACON, and is due for positive regression in the batting average department.
Couple that with the warm weather at Citizens Bank Park and the pitching staff the Snakes are facing, and you have a recipe for some runs.
The Diamondbacks are tasked with Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola.
Nola is off to the roughest start of his career as he enters this start with a 5.40 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. His velocity is down, and his command has been shaky.
This has led to a sizable uptick in hard contact, and seeing that the Diamondbacks are fairly disciplined on balls outside of the strike zone and aggressive on pitches in the zone, we should see them jump on Nola during his efforts to get ahead.
The biggest concern for the Phillies has been their bullpen, as it ranks 25th among MLB teams in reliever ERA. While they are due for positive regression, this is not the matchup nor the conditions for any improvement.
Phillies Betting Preview: Favorable Conditions Could Spark Lineup
On the other side of this matchup, the Phillies are also in line for home cooking at the dish.
Despite some injuries and an aging core, this Phillies lineup is just behind the Diamondbacks in Expected wOBACON.
Also, much like the Diamondbacks, the Phillies will benefit from the conditions and a struggling pitching staff in front of them.
It starts with Arizona starting pitcher Brandon Pfaadt, who is due for a great deal of negative regression.
His 5.01 Expected ERA is nearly double his 2.78 ERA, and while he's generated more groundballs this season, the Phillies are not a groundball-heavy lineup. Pfaadt also attacks the zone with good command, and the lack of pitches to chase will help Philly, as they rank seventh among MLB lineups in zone contact rate.
Behind Pfaadt, there is not much quality help.
Injuries have left the Snakes' closer situation in the air, and the results produced from the Diamondbacks' pen have not helped clear things up much. They rank 22nd among MLB teams in bullpen ERA and are not due for nearly as much positive regression as the Phillies' pen.
