Wednesday’s MLB Over/Under: Handicapping Nola vs. Syndergaard

Wednesday’s MLB Over/Under: Handicapping Nola vs. Syndergaard article feature image

Last night’s Dodgers-Diamondbacks Under 7.5 bet certainly required a lot of sweating, as although the starting pitching matchup was excellent enough to get it to 2-1 in the bottom of the seventh, hijinks took over once the Dodger bullpen became involved, which has been  a main theme of their 2018 season in the early going. Luckily, it ultimately didn’t cost us as we managed to bounce back from Monday’s loss.

Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 4-1, +2.8 units
Yesterday’s Result: Kershaw vs. Godley Under 7.5 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets

1:10 p.m. ET (Facebook Watch)
Probable Pitchers: Aaron Nola vs. Noah Syndergaard

First off, if you’re looking for this game on television today, good luck trying to find it, because that will literally be impossible. For the first time, Major League Baseball is airing a game exclusively on Facebook for the first time — and will be doing so in other instances as well for the duration of the season.

And they’ve gone with an inaugural contest that might not feature a whole lot of offense, given the pitching matchup. On one side, you have Noah Syndergaard slated to toe the rubber for his second 2018 start, and while he was tagged for four runs in six innings in the first one, he actually pitched much better than that, racking up 10 punch-outs.

He’ll be in a position to keep it going this afternoon. Syndergaard owns sensational numbers when squaring off with Philadelphia, registering a 1.78 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and .188 batting average against in six career assignments spanning 35.1 innings. If you tally up each Phillies hitter’s experience opposite Syndergaard, the results are mightily poor, as Thor has held them to 8-for-53 (.151) combined at the plate.

That simply does not equate to a team looking to break out offensively. Other than youngsters Rhys Hoskins and Scott Kingery, the Phils aren’t hitting a lick, owning the worst team batting average in the National League entering Wednesday’s action, with a .188 mark. It’ll be awfully difficult to suddenly get going versus the Mets imposing right-hander.

Fortunately for those on the under, there is another good pitcher to lean on as well, with Aaron Nola starting for Philadelphia. In his first time out, the former first-round draft pick yielded just one run over five-plus innings, as much was made of new manager Gabe Kapler taking him out after just 68 pitches in the opener.

We should certainly anticipate the 24-year-old to go much deeper in the ballgame, and that would be very beneficial for this bet. Although he doesn’t have the prettiest numbers versus this opponent since first coming up, Nola did toss a gem in his last outing against the Mets, limiting them to one run over seven stingy frames.

This also has a lot to do with latching onto the emergence of Nola. While he was quite good last year, he also could have been much better, given his somewhat unlucky .309 average on balls put in play. The Mets have been out to a fine start offensively thus far, but with Nola hopefully in usual form today, he should at least prevent a crooked number from going on the board. With Thor also leading the way, this under could be in good shape.

Play: UNDER 7 (-120)