World Series Game 6 Phillies vs Astros Best Bets, Picks
Photo Illustration by Matt Roembke. Pictured: Bryce Harper and Alex Bregman
- The Astros look to close out the World Series tonight in Game 6 of the World Series against the Phillies.
- In a rematch of Game 6, Houston's Framber Valdez takes the mound against Philadelphia's Zack Wheeler.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of our staff's best bets for tonight's matchup.
Phillies vs. Astros Game 6 Odds
| Phillies Odds | +122 |
| Astros Odds | -144 |
| Over/Under | 7 |
| Time | 8:03 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
Will the World Series end tonight?
The Astros have a 3-2 lead with the series shifting back to Houston for tonight's Game 6. It will be a rematch of the Game 2 pitching matchup as Framber Valdez takes the ball for Houston against Phillies ace Zack Wheeler.
Our analysts have two bets they're eyeing for this game, including one prop and one moneyline.
Here are our best bets for Game 6 of the World Series between the Phillies and Astros.
MLB Odds & Picks
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Odds via DraftKings
Jim Turvey: Yes, Bryce Harper and the Phillies are headed into a do-or-die game, on the road, against a left-handed pitcher who was so good last time out that the world was convinced he was cheating.
However, I still like Harper to continue his hot hitting. For his career, like almost all lefties, Harper fares worse against southpaws. BUT, he is still a well above average hitter versus them. His career wRC+ against lefties is 121, or 21 percent above league-average overall. That's roughly the equivalent of Trea Turner for his career (or Ernie Banks, if you prefer your comps a bit more historical).
Against lefties with the pitch mix Valdez has, he is even better, posting a .372 xwOBA this season. Apologies for going from one advanced metric to another, but all you need to know is that that figure is also well above league average.
Add in the fact that this will be an all-hands-on-deck for both teams, and that the Astros bullpen is entirely right-handed, and the matchups are only going to get better as the night goes on. (Albeit likely against a new arm each time.)
Finally — and this goes last since it is the most narrative of the bunch — do we really think Harper is going to go down quietly? He's been on absolute fire all postseason, slashing .373/.439/.797 and averaging basically three total bases a game (2.94). He's cleared 1.5 total bases 12 out of 16 games, and while it's obviously a small sample, the man simply looks possessed right now.
Backs against the wall, I'm trusting Bam-Bam. I'd take this down to +120.
Astros Moneyline (-144)
Odds via FanDuel
Doug Ziefel: Framber Valdez has been dynamite for Houston during the postseason. Through three starts, he has a 1.42 ERA and an 11.37 strikeout per nine rate. Plus, there are multiple indicators that his success will continue tonight.
First, his postseason FIP of 1.53 is as good as it gets. It shows just how sharp he’s been. We’ve seen him pitch out of jams, work around walks and get critical strikeouts when needed. An even closer look reveals just how dominant he should be against this Phillies lineup.
In Game 2, Philly barely touched him, as he has a CSW rate of 33 percent. Much of those whiffs were generated by his devastating curveball as the Phils swung and missed at it 38 percent of the time. While that number may seem high, it’s actually in line with what Valdez has done against Philly in his career.
As for how the Astros will fare with the Commissioner’s Trophy just a win away, well, that is all dependent on which version of Wheeler we see for Philadelphia. Wheeler was battered in Game 2 as 16 of the 18 balls put in play off him had an exit velocity of 84 mph or higher.
Those are the results that you get when you go against the strength of this Astros lineup. Houston is one of, if not the best fastball-hitting lineups in baseball. The Astros have 10 guys on their roster that had a positive run value against fastballs this season. Yordan Alvarez led the way, with a staggering hard-hit rate of 71.8 percent against fastballs.
Unfortunately for Wheeler, those numbers eliminate his best weapon. Wheeler threw his fastball 60 percent of the time this season, and we saw a similar usage in Game 2 as his four-seam and sinker made up 54 percent of his pitches.
We saw Aaron Nola make the adjustment in both of his outings, as he was able to turn to his breaking ball more often to generate outs. Wheeler must have a similar adjustment tonight, or we will have a repeat of his last outing with possibly even worse results.
Put plain and simple; this is a terrible matchup for Wheeler. While the adjustment for him to make is clear, it is much easier said than done. His slider was hit just as often in his last outing, so he does not have any success to build off of tonight. I expect the Astros to punish any fastballs left in the zone while Valdez spins his curveball past the Phillies’ bats.
One last thing that has to be factored in is the bullpens. The travel day gave each team a rest, and that only helps the Astros more, as their backend guys will be ready to lock this one down if they have the lead.
All of this is why the Houston Astros will be crowned champions tonight.
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