Astros vs Twins Player Props | ALDS Game 3 Odds, MLB Prop Picks for Cristian Javier, More (Tuesday, October 10)
Zac BonDurant/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Cristian Javier
Through the first two games of this ALDS of MLB playoffs, the stars have been stars for both teams. In Game 1, Justin Verlander fired six shutout innings while Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve combined for three home runs as the Astros won 6-4. Meanwhile, in Game 2, the Twins got seven shutout innings from Pablo Lopez and three RBI from Carlos Correa as they won 6-2 and evened the series.
Now, the series shifts to Minnesota for a pivotal Game 3. The Astros will need a strong performance from Cristian Javier and he may get some run support from Altuve.
Astros vs. Twins Game 3 Player Props
The first two games of this series featured great pitching matchups, but Javier's start is the one I've had circled. Last season, Javier had 194 strikeouts and a 2.54 ERA over 148 2/3 innings. As a result, he entered this season with lofty expectations. Overall, his season was a bit up and down, but in September, he posted a 33.4% whiff rate and a 35.3% strikeout rate.
In the Twins, Javier faces the team that had the highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers. In his career, Javier has made just one appearance against the Twins, striking out three in two innings. Additionally, the hitters in the Twins lineup are a combined 0-for-15 with six strikeouts against Javier. Now, I don't expect Javier to toss a no-hitter, but those numbers are rather notable.
Looking at Javier's outs recorded line (12.5), the oddsmakers are expecting him to go about four innings or less. However, if he is on, he could hit this line in three or fewer innings.
If Javier does work deeper into the game, this line offers a ton of value. Javier struck out six batters in five innings or less three times in September. That includes a start with 11 strikeouts and another with eight in six innings. In this matchup, 10 is not out of the question, and you can find that at +2200 on FanDuel. However, eight strikeouts in five innings may be a bit more realistic, and you can take that for +630.
Pick: Cristian Javier Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-130 at DraftKings)
Thus far, Altuve is 3-for-8 (.375) with a solo home run. He had a hit in each of the first two games in this series and in 13 of his past 16 games dating back to the regular season. In that span, Altuve has nine multi-hit games. He may get another one against Sonny Gray.
Altuve is 12-for-36 (.333) with a double against the Twins right-hander and should face him two or three times. However, Gray has pitched five innings or fewer in three of his past five games.
Hits + runs + runs batted in is a great prop to target for leadoff hitters. Even in a pitchers' duel, they are likely to get at least four plate appearances. In Altuve's case, when he gets on base, he has Alex Bregman, Alvarez and Kyle Tucker ready to drive him in. Altuve is also more than capable of driving in some runs himself, as he hit 17 homers and drove in 51 runs this season.
Altuve has hit this line in 12 of his past 16 games and we are getting excellent odds considering that recent history.
Pick: Jose Altuve Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-105 at DraftKings)
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