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MLB Odds, Betting Picks and Predictions for Astros vs. White Sox: Back Chicago as a Home Underdog (Thursday, Aug. 18)

MLB Odds, Betting Picks and Predictions for Astros vs. White Sox: Back Chicago as a Home Underdog (Thursday, Aug. 18) article feature image
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Ron Vesely/Getty Images. Pictured: White Sox RHP Lucas Giolito

  • The White Sox host the Astros in the finale of this four-game set and are listed as short, home underdogs.
  • Luis Garcia gets the start for Houston and Lucas Giolito, who has thrown better of late, gets the ball for Chicago.
  • Tony Sartori breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Astros vs. White Sox Odds

Astros Odds -135
White Sox Odds +110
Over/Under 8 (-115 / -105)
Time 2:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

It’s the fourth and final game of this series between the Houston Astros and the host Chicago White Sox. With these two clubs trending in different directions, Chicago opened up as a short, home underdog.

Will Houston take care of business as a road favorite, or can the White Sox keep the momentum going?

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Houston Astros: Can Garcia Get Back on Track?

Houston has not been playing its best baseball of late and I expect that to continue with right-hander Luis Garcia slated to take the mound. Through 21 starts this season, Garcia is 9-8 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP.

While those numbers are “take it or leave it,” Garcia enters this contest in particularly poor form. Over his past four starts, Garcia is 1-3 with a 5.58 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP.

To make matters even worse, two of those four starts came against Oakland (sorry A’s fans). Additionally, Garcia may not get much run support as the Astros are slated to go against right-hander Lucas Giolito.

Since July 1, Houston sits right around the league average in BA, SLG, OPS, wOBA and hard-hit percentage when facing right-handed pitchers. We should expect this mediocrity to continue against Giolito.

Through 114 career plate appearances against Giolito, this current Astros roster possesses a mere .197 xBA, .306 xSLG and a .278 xwOBA.

Chicago White Sox: Has Giolito Turned a Corner?

While the Astros have been underwhelming recently, the White Sox are playing some of their best ball of the season. As mentioned above, right-hander Lucas Giolito is slated to take the mound for Chicago.

Through 21 starts this season, Giolito is 9-6 with a 4.92 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. While those numbers aren’t great, we should expect to see some positive regression from Giolito based on his metrics.

Giolito possesses a .319 xwOBA, .248 xBA and a .403 xSLG. Some of this positive regression has already started to materialize as he enters this game in good form.

Over his past three starts, Giolito is 3-0 with a 3.71 ERA. To be fair, those three outings came against Kansas City, Texas and Detroit.

However, Giolito could definitely keep it going against a team he has had success against in the past. Over his past four starts against Houston, Giolito is 2-2 with a 3.26 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP.

Following Giolito is one of the better bullpens in baseball. Since July 1, Chicago’s relief pitching ranks ninth in the league in ERA, 12th in WHIP, 12th in BA, sixth in SLG, seventh in wOBA and fourth in hard-hit percentage.

This pitching staff should get plenty of run support as the White Sox are slated to go against right-hander Luis Garcia. When facing right-handed pitchers, Chicago ranks second in the league in BA, 10th in SLG, 12th in OPS, 13th in wOBA and ninth in hard-hit percentage.

Through 24 career plate appearances against Garcia, this current White Sox roster boasts a .333 BA, .524 SLG and a .405 wOBA.

Astros-White Sox Pick

We are riding with the White Sox in this matchup and backing the home underdog. Chicago has been playing good baseball of late, while the Astros have started to — very slightly — slip.

This is a good matchup to bet on each of those trends to continue. The starting pitchers are trending in different directions and Chicago boasts better splits against right-handed pitching.

Quite frankly, I believe Chicago would have been favored in this contest if it were not for the names of each team. At plus money, the White Sox are worth a play.

Pick: Chicago White Sox ML (+105) | Play up to (-115)

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