ALCS Game 3 Picks, Odds, Prediction for Astros vs Yankees
Carmen Mandato/Getty Images. Pictured: Anthony Rizzo
- The Yankees and Astros meet this afternoon in Game 3 of the ALCS.
- New York is favored with Gerrit Cole on the mound, while underdog Houston turns to Cristian Javier.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a prediction.
Astros vs. Yankees Game 3 Odds
| Astros Odds | +128 |
| Yankees Odds | -152 |
| Over/Under | 7 (-105 / -115) |
| Time | 5:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
Cristian Javier finally gets the nod to start against the New York Yankees in Game 3 with his Houston Astros looking to take a commanding 3-0 lead. He will face Gerrit Cole in a critical matchup for New York at home.
However, Javier is an incredibly underrated pitcher and arguably the best pitcher in an Astros rotation that includes Justin Verlander.
The Houston bullpen has been astounding since August 1, as well, so it is going to be incredibly hard for the Yankees to score.
That said, the Astros have to face the ace of the New York staff in Cole, who has put up two phenomenal performances. They will have their hands full with him and the likely back-end of the Yankee bullpen.
This game will see some sparse offense, so with two great starters who can pitch deep into the game, the under is in play.
Javier Can Dominate For Astros
Javier was phenomenal all season. He held a 2.54 ERA and even better 2.43 xERA while striking out 33.2% of hitters. He sometimes has issues with walks, but his strikeout rate puts him in the 94th percentile of the entire league.
In the regular season against righties since August 1, the Yankees had the sixth-worst strikeout rate in baseball at nearly 25%. Pair that with only one active player on the ALCS roster with a .320+ xwOBA in Aaron Judge, and it is a horrible concoction for the Yankees offense.
This postseason, Judge has a paltry .207 OBP with 12 strikeouts in 28 at bats.
Javier’s only nemesis is his pitch count, but he should at least go five strong. After him, the Astros have only one other reliever in Rafael Montero who has allowed a run in the playoffs this year. They will lock down the Yankees, as they have in Games 1 and 2.
Astros May Struggle To Hit Cole
Cole is no slouch, either. He does have the propensity to get frazzled at times, but he has not shown it this postseason.
In the regular season, he did allow some hard contact (29th percentile in hard hit rate, 25th percentile in average exit velocity), but he ranked in the 92nd percentile in strikeout rate and 75th percentile in walk rate.
He has thrown at least six innings in each playoff appearance, too.
The Astros also only had three batters above a .320 xwOBA, and one of them, José Altuve is 0-for-23 in the playoffs. It does not look like he will break out of the slump soon.
The Astros do not strike out much as a team (second in strikeouts behind Cleveland in the season), but this will not be enough against Cole at his peak.
The Yankees have had a few pitchers struggle in the playoffs, like Clarke Schmidt, but Wandy Peralta, Miguel Castro, Clay Holmes Lou Trivino, and Jonathan Loáisiga have been serviceable.
This is more than enough artillery on the back of Cole’s start in this game to keep the Astros in check.
Astros-Yankees Pick
It is hard to envision many runs being scored against Javier or Cole. Unless some Astros bust out of a slump or Javier walks too many hitters, the pitching has been solid in the series and should be even better in this pairing.
Take the under at 7 (-115), and play to 6.5 (-130).
Pick: Under 7 (-115) | play to 6.5 (-130)
Bet Under 7 on Astros-Yankees Game 3 By Clicking on This FanDuel Quickslip!
How would you rate this article?
Follow Us On Social
