A’s vs Tigers Odds, Prediction: Why to Bet the Under
Photo by Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images. Pictured: Kenta Maeda.
A's vs Tigers Odds
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -156 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +138 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -164 |
Let's dive into the A's vs. Tigers odds and make a prediction in our MLB betting preview for their game on Saturday, April 6.
In a strong pitching matchup that will likely fly under the radar on Saturday, Paul Blackburn will throw for the Oakland Athletics against Kenta Maeda of the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park.
Oakland's "ace" for the last few years, Blackburn does a decent job of limiting hard contact. Maeda, who's looking to rebound from a rough debut in which he allowed six runs over 3 1/3 innings, has a different approach — he has above-average walk and strikeout numbers but has trouble keeping the ball on the ground.
Neither of these lineups will necessarily blow the other out of the water, so the under could be in play in this game with two solid starters going.
Blackburn ranked in the 80th percentile or better in Average Exit Velocity, Barrel Rate and Hard Hit Rate in 2023. While he doesn't have elite velocity, topping out around 92-93 mph, his breaking balls come in around 79-83 mph, which helps keep batters off balance.
Last season, Blackburn posted a 4.43 ERA and 4.42 xERA, which could partially be attributed to a 9.3% walk rate. This was his highest walk rate in years, so he could be due for positive regression.
On offense, the A's have major problems. Last season, the A’s had an 89 wRC+ against right-handed pitching with a 25.3% strikeout rate.
That being said, the top portion of their lineup isn't the worst. Kyle McCann, Zack Gelof, Ryan Noda, JJ Bleday and Seth Brown have each held xwOBAs of at least .320 since the beginning of 2023. The latter half of the lineup is weak, however, and Maeda — and the Tigers bullpen — should benefit.
Oakland’s bullpen is in a questionable state as it has four arms on the injured list. The A's do have two arms with upside, however, in Mason Miller and Kyle Muller. Blackburn will be key to limiting Oakland's potential bullpen usage as the right-hander has the ability to eat innings — he went seven innings against the Guardians in his first start of the season.
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Last season, Maeda ranked in the 15th percentile in Average Exit Velocity, 26th percentile in Hard Hit Rate and rarely kept the ball on the ground. The A's, however, could be a get-right matchup for Maeda as they had a 44.3% ground-ball rate last season.
The Tigers have made some gradual improvements to their lineup. Against right-handers last year, they held nearly a 25% strikeout rate. Riley Greene, Mark Canha, Spencer Torkelson and Kerry Carpenter have each held xwOBAs of at least .320 since the beginning of last season against right-handers. They also have promising youngsters in Colt Keith and Parker Meadows.
Detroit's relief staff is in pretty good shape to start the season with Jason Foley, Alex Lange, Andrew Chafin, Will Vest and Shelby Miller. Maeda probably won't eat too many innings, but given how woeful the A's offense is, Tigers relievers should be fine when called upon.
Athletics vs Tigers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Take the Under in this game with two savvy veterans starting. Blackburn and Maeda have their warts, but overall, they have been reliable and get to face below-average offenses.
Pick: Under 7.5 (Play to Under 7)
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