The Cleveland Guardians host the Baltimore Orioles on April 18, 2026. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on MASN.
The Guardians are favored by -132 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Orioles are +112 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Orioles vs Guardians prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Orioles vs Guardians Prediction
- Orioles vs Guardians Pick: Under 7.5
My Orioles vs Guardians best bet is on the Under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Orioles vs Guardians Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -196 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | +112 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +162 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -132 |
- Orioles vs Guardians moneyline: Orioles +112, Guardians -132
- Orioles vs Guardians over/under: 7.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Orioles vs Guardians spread: Guardians -1.5 (+162), Orioles +1.5 (-196)
Orioles vs Guardians Probable Pitchers
| Dean Kremer (RHP) | Stat | Gavin Williams (RHP) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | W-L | 2-1 |
| -0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 3.60 / 6.37 | ERA / xERA | 2.38 / 4.09 |
| 7.35 / 1.21 | FIP / xFIP | 4.43 / 3.63 |
| 1.20 | WHIP | 1.15 |
| 42.9% | K-BB% | 14.6% |
| 41.7% | GB% | 52.3% |
| 87 | Stuff+ | 105 |
| 113 | Location+ | 101 |
Orioles vs Guardians MLB Betting Preview
This game triggered one of our Action PRO systems, powered by Evan Abrams.
The Silent Sharp Unders system targets regular-season MLB games where both teams are performing well, yet the total has quietly dropped from open to close.
These are games featuring competent, winning teams with recent success, stable weather conditions, and closing totals in a common scoring range.
Despite both teams showing strength, the market subtly favors the under, likely due to matchup specifics, pitching, or pace factors.
By following this soft signal — when the public eye is more focused on win streaks and not totals — this system finds value in betting against inflated scoring expectations.
Orioles vs Guardians Pick, Betting Analysis
Dean Kremer is often a guy who overperforms, though I don't understand why.
Although he allowed four runs against the Diamondbacks in his season debut, he was pretty unlucky, with only two of those runs being earned, and three of his six fly-balls allowed going for home runs. Under the hood, he struck out nine and only allowed five hits.
I think he's looking OK heading into this matchup with the Guardians.
Meanwhile, I'm very high on Gavin Williams, who is throwing harder this season and has seen his stuff metrics spike as a result (105 Stuff+). He's running a 2.38 ERA with a 3.63 xFIP through three starts behind a 33% strikeout rate. If he can just cut down on the walks, I'll be bullish on him for the remainder of the season — most projection systems have him finishing with a sub-four ERA.
The weather in Cleveland looks pitcher-friendly on Saturday, with sub-50-degree temperatures and double-digit breezes blowing in from left field.
Altogether, the Under seems sharp.
Pick: Under 7.5
