The New York Yankees host the Baltimore Orioles on May 4, 2026. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on YES.
The Yankees are favored by -205 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Orioles are +172 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Orioles vs Yankees prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Orioles vs Yankees Prediction
- Orioles vs Yankees Pick: Cam Schlittler Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-128)
My Orioles vs Yankees best bet is on Cam Schlittler to record seven or more strikeouts tonight. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Orioles vs Yankees Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -118 | 8.5 -108o / -112u | +172 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -102 | 8.5 -108o / -112u | -205 |
- Orioles vs Yankees moneyline: Orioles +172, Yankees -205
- Orioles vs Yankees over/under: 8.5 (-108o / -112u)
- Orioles vs Yankees spread: Orioles +1.5 (-118), Yankees -1.5 (-102)
Orioles vs Yankees Probable Pitchers
| RHP Shane Baz (BAL) | Stat | RHP Cam Schlittler (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | W-L | 4-1 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.0 |
| 4.50 / 4.11 | ERA / xERA | 1.51 / 2.41 |
| 3.74 / 4.17 | FIP / xFIP | 1.54 / 2.42 |
| 12.0 | K-BB% | 27.6 |
| 39.8 | GB% | 46.0 |
| .352 | BABIP | .240 |
| 100 | Stuff+ | 113 |
| 99 | Location+ | 112 |
Orioles vs Yankees MLB Betting Preview
Editor's Note: This written best bet is a transcription from the latest episode of the Payoff Pitch podcast.
I have a process for fading trends in the pitcher strikeout market every now and then. However, in this game, there's a pitcher I'm targeting that goes against that process.
I'm betting the over on Cam Schlittler's strikeouts against the Orioles. The Yankees starter's prop is all the way up at 6.5. I think the sportsbooks are starting to realize how elite his arm is.
It's really funny that, looking back on his first start of the season, we were getting his K's prop at 4.5. Then there were a couple of 5.5, but now it's been mostly 6.5 all the time.
It hasn't mattered. Schlittler has cleared 6.5 in five of seven outings so far, and in the starts he missed, he finished with five and six strikeouts, respectively.
Orioles vs Yankees Pick, Betting Analysis
Now, the Orioles lineup has been really helter-skelter. We're starting to see "Big Meat" Pete Alonso heat up a little bit, though it hasn't mattered in the team's win-loss department. Baltimore is coming off four straight losses.
Overall, the Orioles are whiffing at the 5th-highest rate in baseball right now. I'm going to keep betting on Schlittler to go over this 6.5 total.
I think it's not too long before he enters Tarik Skubal's range in terms of strikeout props and we start seeing this pop at 7.5, maybe even 8.5 in the right matchups.
Also, Action PRO projects Schlittler for 7.6 strikeouts tonight.
So I will happily take Over 6.5 right now, with the best price at FanDuel.
Pick: Cam Schlittler Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-128, FanDuel)
