The Philadelphia Phillies host the Baltimore Orioles on August 5, 2025. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on NBCS-PH.
Find my MLB betting preview and Orioles vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Orioles vs Phillies Prediction
- Orioles vs Phillies pick: Over 9.5 (+100 | Play to -105)
My Orioles vs Phillies best bet is Over 9.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Orioles vs Phillies Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -162 | 9.5 -102 / -120 | +124 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +134 | 9.5 -102 / -120 | -146 |
Orioles vs Phillies Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Dean Kremer (BAL) | Stat | RHP Taijuan Walker (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-7 | W-L | 3-5 |
| 1.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 4.27 / 3.92 | ERA /xERA | 3.82 / 4.37 |
| 4.04 / 4.20 | FIP / xFIP | 5.22 / 4.61 |
| 1.27 | WHIP | 1.36 |
| 13.3% | K-BB% | 9.7% |
| 38.7% | GB% | 41.5% |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 91 |
| 103 | Location+ | 99 |
Tony Sartori’s Orioles vs Phillies Preview
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview
Dean Kremer is going through one of the worst seasons of his career. Through 22 appearances on the mound, Kremer has a 4.27 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally poor, as the right-hander ranks in the bottom half of the league in expected ERA (xERA), expected batting average (xBA) and strikeout rate.
Following Kremer is a fade-worthy bullpen. Entering this matchup, Baltimore’s relief corps ranks in the bottom 10 in ERA, FIP and WAR.
The good news for this pitching staff is that it should receive plenty of run support. This season, the Orioles rank in the top half of the league in runs per game, slugging percentage, OPS and home runs.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
Like Baltimore, Philadelphia shouldn’t have an issue producing runs. The Phillies rank in the top 10 in runs per game, hits per game, slugging percentage and OPS.
Another similarity between these teams is underwhelming relief pitching. This year, Philadelphia’s bullpen ranks in the bottom half of the league in ERA, FIP, expected FIP (xFIP) and WAR.
That relief corps may be called upon early, given that Taijuan Walker profiles as a strong sell-high candidate. Despite some decent surface-level results, Walker’s analytics suggest that regression is looming.
The right-hander ranks in the bottom third of the league in xERA, xBA and strikeout rate. These woes are likely to continue against the Orioles.
Orioles vs Phillies Prediction, Betting Analysis
In his latest start against Baltimore, Walker posted a 4.76 ERA and 1.41 WHIP.
All the variables in this matchup point to a high-scoring affair. Both lineups are strong, both starting pitchers profile poorly, and both bullpens have struggled.
Finally, there have been 11 or more total runs scored in each of Kremer’s past two starts.
Pick: Over 9.5 (+100 | Play to -105)
Moneyline
I lean toward Baltimore, but I don't trust Kremer.
Run Line (Spread)
I also like Baltimore to cover, but I'm staying away for the same reason as I mentioned above.
Over/Under
As mentioned, I'm betting Over 9.5.
