The Baltimore Orioles host the Boston Red Sox on August 25, 2025. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 6:35 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on NESN.
Find my MLB betting preview and Red Sox vs Orioles prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports, and more.
My Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction
- Red Sox vs Orioles pick: Orioles ML -105 (Play to -110)
My Red Sox vs Orioles best bet is on the Orioles moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Orioles Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 9.5 -105o / -115u | -118 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 9.5 -105o / -115u | -102 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Brennan Bernardino (BOS) | Stat | RHP Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | W-L | 10-5 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 2.93/3.41 | ERA /xERA | 3.97/5.63 |
| 3.37/4.52 | FIP / xFIP | 4.79/4.69 |
| 1.20 | WHIP | 1.27 |
| 8.1% | K-BB% | 9.5% |
| 50.0% | GB% | 40.6% |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 88 | Location+ | 104 |
Doug Ziefel’s Red Sox vs Orioles Preview
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview: Pitching Uncertainty Looms Large
The Red Sox come into this series riding high as they took three of four games from the Yankees this past weekend to surpass them in the standings. They now sit just five games back of the Blue Jays and are looking to stay hot.
However, that won't be easy as they start this series with uncertainty on the mound. Brennan Bernardino will open the game, and he's been excellent in short stints, pitching to a 2.93 ERA over 49 appearances. However, he'll likely just throw the first inning to try to take care of Jackson Holliday and Gunnar Henderson.
After that, Richard Fitts is expected to do the bulk of the pitching, and that is concerning for Red Sox faithful. Fitts enters this outing with a 4.83 ERA and showing no signs of improvement as he's surrendered a ton of hard contact.
What's been rough is that not much of that hard contact has been on the ground, and actually a good portion of it has wound up over the wall as he's allowed 2.19 home runs per nine innings.
While the Orioles may not be at full strength, they still have plenty of pop in their hitter-friendly ballpark.
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview: Sugano Looks to Repeat Success vs Boston
On the other side, the Orioles will hand the ball to Tomoyuki Sugano. Sugano has done a great job of walking the tight rope and minimizing damage this season. The 35-year-old rookie from Japan is a strike thrower who pitches to contact.
However, much like his counterpart, the majority of the contact against him has been hard, and his xERA of 5.63 points to significant regression coming. Although we saw Sugano have success against this Red Sox lineup just six days ago.
During their last series in Boston, Sugano tossed five innings and allowed one run, which was unearned. While seeing the same team in back-to-back starts is not ideal, Boston did not appear to figure Sugano out in that game.
If the Red Sox do get to Sugano this time around, expect the hook to be quick, as the Orioles' bullpen is well-rested.
Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction, Betting Analysis
With the amount of questionable arms in this matchup, it is a coin flip in my eyes. I'm slightly more confident in the Orioles as underdogs here, as Richard Fitts is highly unlikely to keep the Orioles off the board in the middle innings.
Meanwhile, Sugano has proven to be a crafty veteran and should give Baltimore some quality innings, just as he did in his last start.
Back Baltimore to pull off the upset.
Pick: Orioles ML (-105, Fanatics)
Moneyline
Take the Orioles on the moneyline tonight.
Run Line (Spread)
I see no value in the run line.
Over/Under
I have no play on the total.
Red Sox vs Orioles Betting Trends
