The Baltimore Orioles host the Boston Red Sox on August 28, 2025. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on NESN.
Find my MLB betting preview and Red Sox vs Orioles prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction
- Red Sox vs Orioles picks: Red Sox -1.5 (-106 | Play to -115)
My Red Sox vs Orioles best bet is Red Sox -1.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Orioles Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 8 -110o / -110u | -180 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 8 -110o / -110u | +150 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Garrett Crochet (BOS) | Stat | LHP Cade Povich (BAL) |
|---|---|---|
| 14-5 | W-L | 2-7 |
| 5.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.3 |
| 2.38 / 3.02 | ERA /xERA | 5.13 / 5.57 |
| 2.58 / 2.67 | FIP / xFIP | 4.03 / 3.86 |
| 1.06 | WHIP | 1.43 |
| 24.8% | K-BB% | 16.8% |
| 50.1% | GB% | 41.1% |
| 115 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 99 | Location+ | 100 |
Tony Sartori’s Red Sox vs Orioles Preview
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview
There’s still time left in the season for Garrett Crochet to overtake Tarik Skubal in the American League Cy Young Award race. Through 26 starts, Crochet is 14-5 with a 2.38 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally impressive. Entering this matchup, Crochet ranks in the 81st percentile or higher in expected ERA (xERA), expected batting average (xBA), average exit velocity and walk rate.
This success is likely to continue against Baltimore, a team he boasts a 1.13 ERA and 0.56 WHIP against through four meetings.
The southpaw should also receive plenty of run support. This season, Boston ranks in the top seven in runs scored per game, hits per game, slugging percentage and OPS.
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview
The Orioles’ Cade Povich will certainly have his hands full dealing with the powerful Red Sox lineup. Povich is 2-7 with a 5.13 ERA and 1.43 WHIP through 17 appearances this year.
His analytics are even worse. Not only does Povich carry a 5.57 xERA and .276 xBA, but he also ranks in the fifth percentile or lower in average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Unsurprisingly, the left-hander has struggled against Boston. In their four previous meetings, Povich is 0-2 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.
Following Povich is one of the league’s worst bullpens. Entering this contest, Baltimore’s relief corps ranks 25th in ERA, 24th in FIP and 22nd in WAR.
Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction, Betting Analysis
Boston possesses every advantage in this matchup. Crochet is far superior to Povich, while the Red Sox’s relief corps has fared better than Baltimore’s.
The hitting gap between these two teams is also significant. This season, the Orioles fail to crack the top half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, on-base percentage and OPS.
Pick: Red Sox -1.5 (-106 | Play to -115)
Moneyline
I like Boston to win, but I find more value in taking the run line.
Run Line (Spread)
As mentioned, I'm betting on the Red Sox's run line.
Over/Under
I lean toward the Under, but I don't trust Povich.
Red Sox vs Orioles Betting Trends
