The New York Yankees host the Boston Red Sox on August 23, 2025. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on YES.
Read our Red Sox vs Yankees prediction and MLB pick below.
My Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction
- Red Sox vs Yankees Picks: Red Sox ML (-135 or better)
My Red Sox vs Yankees best bet is on Boston's moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Yankees Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 8.5 -102o / -118u | -135 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 8.5 -102o / -118u | +110 |
Red Sox vs Yankees Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Garrett Crochet (BOS) | Stat | RHP Will Warren (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 13-5 | W-L | 7-5 |
| 5.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.2 |
| 2.43 / 2.99 | ERA / xERA | 4.25 / 4.01 |
| 2.59 / 2.72 | FIP / xFIP | 3.64 / 3.66 |
| 1.07 | WHIP | 1.37 |
| 24.3% | K-BB% | 15.9% |
| 49.7% | GB% | 44.5% |
| 115 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 98 | Location+ | 101 |
Tony Sartori’s Red Sox vs Yankees Preview
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview
Garrett Crochet remains the primary challenger to Tarik Skubal for the American League Cy Young Award. Crochet has been excellent this season, posting a 13-5 record with a 2.43 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally impressive. Entering this matchup, Crochet ranks in the top quarter of qualified pitchers in expected ERA (xERA), expected batting average (xBA) allowed, average exit velocity allowed, and strikeout rate.
That success is likely to continue against New York. In five prior head-to-head meetings, Crochet is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA against the Yankees.
Following Crochet is one of the league’s top bullpens. Among MLB teams, Boston's relief corps ranks third in ERA, sixth in FIP and fourth in WAR.
New York Yankees Betting Preview
The clear bullpen advantage goes to the Red Sox. New York’s biggest weakness is its relief staff, as it ranks in the bottom 10 in ERA, FIP and WAR.
Not only do the Yankees fall short in the bullpen department, but they also appear overmatched in the starting pitching matchup. Right-hander Will Warren enters this contest with a 4.25 ERA and 1.37 WHIP through 26 starts.
His analytics are equally concerning, ranking in the bottom half of qualified pitchers in xERA, average exit velocity allowed, barrel rate allowed, and hard-hit rate allowed.
Warren has faced Boston once before, surrendering four runs and four walks in fewer than six innings.
Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction, Betting Analysis
The only reason the Red Sox are not heavier favorites is that New York boasts one of the best lineups in baseball.
That said, the gap between the two pitching staffs is far wider than the hitting gap.
While the Yankees may have the edge offensively, Boston still ranks among the top seven MLB lineups in runs scored per game, hits per game, slugging percentage and OPS.
Finally, the Red Sox have won each of the past seven meetings between these two clubs.
Pick: Red Sox ML (-135 or better)
Moneyline
As mentioned, I'm betting the Red Sox moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I also like the Red Sox to cover, but I find more value in just taking the outright moneyline price.
Over/Under
I lean toward the over, but don't want to fade Crochet.
