The San Diego Padres host the Boston Red Sox on August 8, 2025. First pitch from PETCO Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on NESN.
Find my MLB betting preview and Red Sox vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports, and more.
My Red Sox vs Padres Prediction
- Red Sox vs Padres pick: Nick Pivetta Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-130, DraftKings)
My Red Sox vs Padres best bet is Nick Pivetta over 17.5 outs recorded. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Padres Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -147 | 8 -108 / -113 | +143 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +121 | 8 -108 / -113 | -175 |
Red Sox vs Padres Projected Starting Pitchers
| Walker Buehler (BOS) | Stat | Nick Pivetta (SDP) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-6 | W-L | 11-3 |
| -0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.1 |
| 5.74/5.55 | ERA /xERA | 2.73/3.72 |
| 5.89/4.84 | FIP / xFIP | 3.20/3.64 |
| 1.60 | WHIP | 0.94 |
| 6.3 | K-BB% | 20.6 |
| 44.6 | GB% | 34.4 |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 93 | Location+ | 110 |
Doug Ziefel’s Red Sox vs Padres Preview
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview: Lineup Due to Regress?
The Boston Red Sox come into this series scorching hot, as they've won eight of their last 10 ballgames and have begun to ascend in the AL East standings.
However, their lineup is due to cool off a bit, as they've reached many of their expected statistics.
On Friday, they face Nick Pivetta, who's been one of the most consistent starters in the league this season. The former Red Sox enters with a 2.73 ERA and very few signs of regression.
Pivetta's improved command over the last two seasons has amplified his swing-and-miss stuff. His Called Strikes plus Whiffs is elite, and if there's one Achilles' heel of the Red Sox's order, it's strikeouts.
Boston ranks 27th in strikeout rate against righties on the season, and despite ranking ninth over the last month, its aggression is still there, which means we're likely to see the strikeouts go back up starting tonight.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview: Good Matchup for Offense?
The Red Sox aren't the only team that's rolling into this series, as the Padres have won eight of their last 10, as well.
San Diego's aggression at the deadline has bolstered an already impressive lineup, and tonight, we should see it fire on all cylinders against a scuffling Walker Buehler.
Buehler has had a rough 2025 campaign, as he enters with a 5.74 ERA and actually is due to be worse, with his FIP (5.89) ranking in the first percentile. Unlike his counterpart, Buehler's inability to put hitters away has been his detriment.
His strikeout rate is in the 14th percentile, and tonight, he takes on a Padres lineup that thrives on putting the ball in play. While San Diego doesn't always square it up, it's made opposing pitchers work, as it ranks third in strikeout rate against righties.
Look for San Diego to cash in early and often with the amount of traffic it's set to create against Buehler.
Red Sox vs Padres Prediction, Betting Analysis
While both of these clubs are cruising into this matchup, the discrepancy on the mound is clear, which is why the Padres are heavy favorites.
Pivetta posting another quality start is a likely outcome if the Padres take care of business like the odds say they should.
Pivetta has the tools to expose the Red Sox lineup and is in a groove of his own. He's recorded an out in seven of his last 10 starts, which is part of a 68% hit rate on the season.
Back Pivetta to be a big part of the Padres' success tonight.
Pick: Nick Pivetta Over 17.5 Outs Recorded
Moneyline
I see no value in the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
The Padres run line is worth a look here.
Over/Under
I have no play on the total.
