MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Braves vs. Padres Betting Preview (April 16)
Ezra Shaw/Getty Images. Pictured: Nick Martinez
- The Padres have moved to a slight favorites against the Braves this afternoon in San Diego.
- The total has jumped up, too, from an opening of 7.5 to where it sits now at 8.5.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of the matchup, including a betting pick.
Updated Braves vs. Padres Odds
|Time||4:05 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The defending world champion Atlanta Braves have been a little sluggish out of the gates. After splitting their opening series against the Cincinnati Reds then dropping the next series to the Washington Nationals, the Braves got pummeled by the San Diego Padres in their first road game on Thursday night before winning on Friday.
The San Diego Padres came out with a bang in their home opener following a series loss to the San Francisco Giants. However, the one game they won in San Francisco was started by Saturday’s pitcher, Nick Martinez.
Braves Sluggish to Start
Considering the perceived softness of the Braves’ opening schedule, a series split and a series loss at home is not how the Braves were hoping to start the season.
Surprisingly, the Braves’ offense has not been the force out of the gates that many expected. They have a team wRC+ of 102 to start the season, which is well below expectation. Additionally, this number is actually an inflated after they put up 16 runs against the Nationals on Tuesday.
Outside of that win, they have only scored more than three runs in one other game this season entering Friday.
Despite getting blown out twice already this season, the Braves’ pitching staff has been as-advertised to start the year.
Despite getting roughed up in his first start, Ian Anderson looks to bounce back. His career numbers indicate that his home/road splits are pretty consistent and he might be able to get back on track on Saturday.
However, it is a question of if Anderson and the Braves bullpen can get the run support they need to walk away from this match up with a win.
Padres Hope to Have Hidden Gem in Martinez
The real revelation for the Padres last week was Martinez’s start in the series opener in San Francisco. After spending the past four seasons in Japan’s NPB, Martinez returned stateside and pitched very well in his season debut.
He mixed his cutter and changeup very effectively with his four-seam fastball to help neutralize the Giants’ left-hand-heavy lineup.
The Braves do not rely as heavily on platoons, so it will be interesting to see how his stuff plays against them. However, the Braves’ offense has been struggling to start the season and this could be another opportunity for Martinez to entrench himself in the Padres’ rotation.
The Padres’ offense has done well to replace the production it is missing while Fernando Tatis Jr. recovers from his wrist injury, and they’ve found themselves in the upper-third of offenses by team wRC+ so far this season.
The Braves also started slow last season and didn’t ascend and remain over the .500 mark until August. This may be a good time to bet against them while their offense is struggling and Anderson finds his footing.
The books have this as a coin flip as of this writing, but the early season numbers show the Padres have the edge in this matchup.
Pick: Padres -110