Braves vs Phillies Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Monday, September 11
Matthew Grimes Jr./Atlanta Braves/Getty Images. Pictured: Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies.
Braves vs. Phillies Odds
With a 5-2 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates yesterday, the Atlanta Braves officially became the first team to punch their ticket to the 2023 postseason. At 93-49, the Braves have the best record in baseball and are 15 games clear of the Phillies in the NL East standings.
Philadelphia is in a good position for a playoff berth as well, currently sitting four games up for the NL's top wild-card spot. The Phillies have been dominant at home and suddenly have more to play for, but the Braves have been the league’s most formidable team all year.
These two divisional foes will play a doubleheader today after a postponement in June. That means we get the gift of a rare Monday matinee game as Game 1 will get underway at 1:05 p.m. ET. Let’s dive in.
Charlie Morton has long been a guy who consistently outperforms expectations. He has a 3.32 ERA on the year, more than a full run better than his 4.60 xERA. Even approaching 40 years old, Morton still averages over 5.5 innings per start.
Morton relies on one of the game’s best curveballs. He throws his breaking ball over 43% of the time and it is consistently dominant. His curveball has the best run value in the league, allowing just a .246 wOBA to opponents with a 41.2% Whiff rate.
What needs to be said about this Atlanta offense? The Braves have the league’s most dangerous lineup. They lead the league in runs, home runs, team average, wOBA and wRC+. They hit for both power and average throughout their entire lineup.
All nine of the Braves' regulars have a wRC+ above 105. Matt Olson leads the league with 48 home runs and Ronald Acuña Jr. is running away with the National League MVP award. He has a staggering 168 wRC+ and a .424 wOBA. He leads the league with 64 stolen bases and is five home runs away from a 40-40 season.
Just like in the past, Taijuan Walker’s production has tailed off as the season has progressed. Since the All-Star break, Walker has a 4.41 ERA. He has a 5.09 xFIP since the break and has allowed at least two runs in eight straight starts.
Walker relies on his splitter, sinker, cutter and fastball combination and looks to generate ground balls and weak contact. He has a strikeout rate below 20% and his velocity has dropped across the board. Walker is in the bottom half of the league in most pitching metrics and tends to have more issues late in the season.
A little brotherly love is all Trea Turner needed to regain his All-Star form. Ever since the Phillies’ fans gave Turner a standing ovation, he is batting .376 with a .502 wOBA and 222 wRC+. He has 14 home runs in the last month, after hitting just 10 in the first four months.
The whole team has seen a boost and has been energized by the Philly faithful. Since the famous Turner ovation, Philadelphia leads the league in wRC+ and wOBA and has been crushing the ball, especially at home.
Braves vs. Phillies
Betting Pick & Prediction
While Morton is a consistently solid pitcher, his upside to shut down a lineup has greatly declined. He ranks in the bottom 30% of the league in xERA and his normally elite ground-ball rate is down to 45%.
Walker seems to hit a wall halfway through the season every year. His production drops, and he had been a below-average pitcher for the majority of this year to begin with. Walker has allowed at least three runs in four of his last five starts.
Atlanta has the best lineup in baseball and has lethal bats at every position. Philadelphia leads the league with a .381 wOBA and 140 wRC+ since the Turner standing ovation. Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh and J.T. Realmuto are all playing really well right now.
With a doubleheader on the slate for Monday, teams will be a little more careful with their bullpen usage knowing they have to get through two games. If one of these pitchers gets into trouble, the managers will likely be slower to turn it over to the pen.
Given the elite capabilities of the two offenses and the questions on the mound, I like the over in Philadelphia on Monday afternoon.
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