Brewers vs Astros Odds & Prediction: MLB Expert Pick

Saturday, May 18

7:10 p.m. ET

MLB.TV

Milwaukee Brewers Odds
Moneyline	Over/Under	Run Line
+143	8.5 -105o /-115u	+1.5 -140

Houston Astros Odds
Moneyline	Over/Under	Run Line
-170	8.5 -105o /-115u	-1.5 +118

Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The latest Brewers vs Astros odds for Saturday have the Astros listed as -170 moneyline favorites, with an over/under of 8.5 (-105o /-115u).

For my Brewers vs Astros prediction, I will be looking at the over on the total. That may be surprising given both starting pitchers — Bryse Wilson for the Brewers and Justin Verlander for the Astros — possess strong ERAs.

Let's dive into my MLB betting preview and get into my Brewers vs Astros pick.

Milwaukee Brewers

Right-hander Bryse Wilson gets the ball for Milwaukee and should be an excellent sell-high candidate. Through 11 appearances this season, Wilson is 2-1 with a 2.65 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP.

While those are some terrific numbers, his underlying metrics suggest that regression is looming. Wilson ranks in the 39th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.

Meanwhile, I'm not sure how much we can trust the Brewers' bullpen, which ranks 21st in the league in FIP. With that said, this pitching staff should get plenty of run support as Milwaukee possess one of the best offenses in baseball.

The Brewers rank in the top four in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases.

Houston Astros

That success at the dish could continue against right-hander Justin Verlander. Yes, the future first ballot Hall of Famer just threw an absolute gem against the Detroit Tigers.

However, I have two counters to that. One, it's the Tigers. Two, he allowed seven runs on eight hits in just five innings against the Yankees in his prior start.

Milwaukee is better at the plate, in every single category across the board, than both of those teams. Additionally, like Wilson, Verlander's analytics are poor and suggest that regression's looming.

Verlander ranks in the 48th percentile in xERA and the seventh percentile in barrel rate. If Verlander allows a few runs, then we should be in good shape for this over as Houston's bullpen is suspect.

This season, the Astros' relief pitching ranks in the bottom half of the league in both ERA and FIP.

With that said, Houston's pitching staff should get plenty of run support. Not far behind the Brewers, the Astros rank in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases.

Brewers vs. Astros

Betting Pick & Prediction

Both offenses are capable of putting up runs. This will come down to whether the expected regression hits for both starting pitchers. Even if it doesn't, I don't necessarily trust either bullpen.

Therefore, we should expect nine or more runs to be scored on Saturday evening.

Pick: Over 8.5 (+100 at bet365 | Play to -105)

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