Brewers vs Mets Pick Today | MLB Odds, Predictions (Saturday, March 30)
Brewers vs. Mets Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-110 | 7.5 -102 / -120 | -1.5 +160 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-110 | 7.5 -102 / -120 | +1.5 -194 |
Luis Severino is an intriguing bounce-back candidate in the starting rotation for the New York Mets. The last few years have been pretty disappointing for Severino, who has not thrown more than 102 innings since 2018. Last season, in limited time, he had trouble striking batters out and preventing hard contact.
Meanwhile, his opponent Saturday will be DL Hall and the Milwaukee Brewers. Hall was a key piece in the trade for Corbin Burnes. The former top prospect should get plenty of starts in Milwaukee. Hall only threw 19 1/3 innings in 2023 for the Orioles, but he has a ton of potential with this new opportunity.
That said, hitting should not be much of a concern, as these two teams could be relying upon relievers for the bulk of this game.
DL Hall held a 3.26 ERA in his short MLB stint in 2023. He had 23 strikeouts to five walks. He did a good job of keeping the ball on the ground. He does not necessarily throw the hardest, but this can also help him limit hard contact. He may have his hands full against a Mets lineup who did not have much trouble with left-handers in 2024, though.
The Brewers should have enough power to get by Severino and the Mets’ relief staff. Jackson Chourio, Sal Frelick, and Christian Yelich is an intriguing outfield.
The addition of Rhys Hoskins provides this lineup a boost, especially against a guy like Severino, who yielded 23 home runs in 89 1/3 innings last year. Willy Adames is another name to watch with Severino, as he parked 20 homers off of righties in 2023.
The Brewers bullpen is chock full of good arms and pitchers who can throw hard, but Devin Williams being out could cause some strain, when a starter may not make it too deep into games.
Sure, Hall will be conditioned to throw longer into games, but this may not be one of them, since the Mets had a decent track record against lefties in the latter part of 2023.
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Now, Severino has potential, but the last two years have not indicated much future success. He was hurt for a large portion of the season in 2023, but he consistently has had trouble with hard hit balls.
Even dating back to solid 2022, he has not ranked better than the 25th percentile in average exit velocity. Sure, his results were better that season, but these numbers could be a concern with a Brewers’ lineup with some pop.
The Mets are not too shabby throughout, either. Of course, Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso are as consistent as hitters could get. Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Alvarez are also power threats.
Yes, the lineup does trail off if Starling Marte and Brett Baty do not show flashes of what they could be, but this team has enough to force Hall out of the game in a few innings.
In relief, the Mets have Edwin Díaz and a strong back-end to close out a game. However, Jake Diekman, and Jorge López have not been the most reliable relief arms.
With Severino not logging too many innings the last few seasons, it's possible that we'll see the Mets try to avoid pushing him far into this game. Thus, the relievers in New York could be a bit taxed.
Brewers vs. Mets
Betting Pick & Prediction
Neither of these starters should pitch too deeply into this game, which could showcase some volatility. Each team has enough in the lineups to produce runs early and often. With the starters likely not pitching too far into this matchup, the over could be in play. I would take it up to 9.
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