MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions for Brewers vs. Pirates

As of the beginning of MLB games on Tuesday, the Milwaukee Brewers hold a 2.5-game lead over the Chicago Cubs in the National League Central. The Pittsburgh Pirates are not in the conversation, but they can surely play spoiler in this series.

Milwaukee will throw Freddy Peralta, who has been fantastic in the second half of the season. Mitch Keller will counter for the Bucs, and after a couple of hiccups in July and August, he looks much more stabilized like early in the season.

Note: As of Wednesday at 11 a.m. ET, Colin Selby has been announced as the starter for the Pirates instead of Keller.

In the last couple weeks, there has not been much of a difference between either bullpen or lineup's performance for the Brewers and Pirates. That said, both have solid starters on the bump and enough bullpen arms to keep runs at a minimum in this matchup.

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Peralta is a great starting pitcher. Since the All-Star break, the right-handed veteran has a 2.38 ERA over 53 innings pitched. On the season, he has a 3.85 ERA against a 3.26 xERA, so he will likely continue to improve, based on expectations.

His Strikeout Rate is an astounding 31.3% against an 8.9% Walk Rate. His Average Exit Velocity is 87.7 mph with a Hard-Hit Rate of 38.3%, and these are also above average. His Pitching Run Value ranks in the top 25% of the league, so Pittsburgh could struggle with his arsenal.

Milwaukee maintains an 84 wRC+ off of righties in the last two weeks. The Brewers have a 10.2% Walk Rate and 21.2% Strikeout Rate, but their OPS is only .670. Much of the production comes from the top of the order, with four bats above a .340 xwOBA. Keller and the Pirates bullpen should keep the Brewers hitters in check.

The Brewers bullpen has excelled since Aug. 22 with a 3.81 xFIP, 10.1% Walk Rate and 28.6% Strikeout Rate. Like Peralta, they may walk a few more than most, but they can manufacture strikeouts in crucial moments. They have multiple viable relief options when Peralta exits, and he has pitched at least five innings in every start since May 26, so this should be another strong showing.

Keller owns a 5.30 ERA in the second half, but this mostly ballooned in late July/early August lulls. He has not allowed more than three earned runs since his start on Aug. 3. On the year, he has a 3.92 ERA against a 3.88 xERA, so expectations and reality are aligned. He boasts an 87.3 mph Average Exit Velocity, a 34.1% Hard Hit Rate and a Pitching Run Value in the 69^th percentile.

The Pirates have a 99 wRC+ off of righties in the last two weeks with a 23.8% Strikeout Rate, 10.6% Walk Rate and a .740 OPS.

That said, most righties are not nearly as effective as Peralta and the Milwaukee bullpen. The Pirates have five bats above a .340 xwOBA, so this is a slight edge over the Brewers, but Peralta can negate the Pirates' bats in this game.

Pittsburgh has a 4.79 xFIP over the last two weeks in the bullpen with a 17.9% Strikeout Rate and 9.5% Walk Rate. Still, they have four arms below the 4.00 xFIP mark, so this is enough on the back of the starter’s outing.

Neither the Pirates nor the Brewers will crush right-handed pitching, and both have reliable starting pitchers. Each team also has enough bullpen options behind the starters to keep runs limited as the game progresses.

Since Peralta and Keller have been great in the last month, this game should go under the total. Take this under to 8 at -130.

Pick: Under 8.5 (-110 | Bet to 8 at -130 or Better)