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MLB Odds & Picks for Brewers vs. Pirates: Betting Value on Over/Under

MLB Odds & Picks for Brewers vs. Pirates: Betting Value on Over/Under article feature image
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Dylan Buell/Getty Images. Pictured: Brandon Woodruff

  • The Pirates host the Brewers in the finals of what has been a high-scoring series.
  • Brandon Woodruff gets the ball on Thursday as Milwaukee looks to bounce back from a tough defeat on Wednesday night.
  • Tony Sartori previews the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Brewers vs. Pirates Odds

Brewers Odds -250
Pirates Odds +200
Over/Under 8
Time 12:35 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

We have the third and final game of this NL Central intradivisional series with the Pittsburgh Pirates hosting the Milwaukee Brewers. Each of the first two games of this series has gone over the total.

Will we get another high-scoring affair between these two clubs, or can the pitching step up this time around?

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Milwaukee Brewers: Will Woodruff Continue Strong Stretch?

After dropping each of the first two games of this series, the Brewers will look to right-hander Brandon Woodruff to break the spell. Through 15 starts this season, Woodruff is 9-3 with a 3.55 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP.

On top of these excellent season totals, Woodruff has been in terrific form recently. Over his past nine starts, Woodruff is 6-1 with a 2.16 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP.

There have been seven or fewer runs scored in five of those nine games (56%). This great form should continue against Pittsburgh.

In his two starts against the Pirates this season, Woodruff is 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. Woodruff’s excellent metrics suggest regression is not an issue. This season, the Brewers’ right-hander boasts a .274 xwOBA, .208 xBA and a .330 xSLG.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Can Thompson Get Back on Track?

Zach Thompson is slated to take the mound for Pittsburgh in this game. Through 18 pitching appearances this season, Thompson is 3-8 with a 5.09 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP.

While those numbers are definitely not anything to brag home about, they are greatly inflated by his past two poor performances. Prior to Thompson’s last two starts, he had allowed two or fewer earned runs in seven of his past nine starts.

Two of these three starts came against Milwaukee, both of which went under the total. However, Thompson may not get much run support in this game as the Pirates are slated to go against right-hander Brandon Woodruff.

Since July 1, Pittsburgh ranks just 29th in the league in BA, 27th in SLG, 27th in OPS, 27th in wOBA and 19th in hard-hit percentage when facing right-handed pitchers. Through 91 career plate appearances against Woodruff, this current Pirates roster possesses a mere .197 xBA, .294 xSLG and a .238 xwOBA.

Brewers-Pirates Pick

We are rolling with the under in this game. Woodruff is on top of his game, which puts him as one of the best pitchers in the league.

Meanwhile, Thompson has excelled against Milwaukee. Both of these lineups are below average, which makes me believe the under is worth a play.

Pick: Brewers/Pirates u8 (-105) | Play up to (-120)

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