MLB Odds & Pick for Brewers vs Royals
(Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images) Pictured: Willy Adames #27 and Blake Perkins #16.
Brewers vs. Royals Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 9 -102o / -118u | +110 |
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +154 | 9 -102o / -118u | -130 |
The latest Brewers vs Royals odds for Tuesday's contest at Kauffman Stadium have the Royals installed as -130 favorites on the moneyline, with an over/under of 8.5 (-122o / +100u). For my Brewers vs Royals pick, I will be looking at the total.
Let's dive into my MLB betting preview and get into my Brewers vs Royals prediction for Tuesday, May 7.
Right-hander Colin Rea takes the mound for Milwaukee, and he is a prime regression candidate. Rea has gotten off to a statistically great start this season, going 3-0 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.22 WHIP through his first six outings.
However, his analytics suggest major regression is looming, as the right-hander ranks in the ninth percentile in xERA and seventh percentile in xBA. His 5.80 xERA is a drastic difference from his 2.67 ERA, and that ERA will eventually come down to match that.
Perhaps this expected regression will come to fruition against Kansas City, a team Rea possesses a fade-worthy 7.71 ERA against through two career meetings. If Rea gets chased early, then it is possible the Brewers' bullpen also gets lit up, considering their relief pitching ranks 19th in the league in FIP.
With that said, run support should not be an issue for this pitching staff, as Milwaukee ranks in the top seven of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases.
Speaking of strong hitting, Kansas City also ranks in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases. That success is likely to continue against Rea, a pitcher whom this current lineup boasts a dominating .318 BA, .500 SLG and .363 wOBA against through 23 combined plate appearances.
Somehow, this lineup's underlying metrics are even stronger over that sample size, generating a .335 xBA, .549 xSLG and .388 xwOBA. The similarities between these two teams don't stop there, as the Royals are also going with a starting pitcher that possesses tremendous surface-level stats but troubling analytics.
Right-hander Seth Lugo is slated to take the mound for Kansas City, and he is 5-1 through seven starts this season with a 1.60 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. However, just like Rea, these tremendous surface level stats are unsustainable when measured against Lugo's underlying metrics.
This year, Lugo ranks in the 41st percentile or lower in xERA, xBA and Barrel%. He owns a 4.16 xERA compared to his 1.60 ERA.
Brewers vs. Royals
Betting Pick & Prediction
If Lugo gets chased early, then I trust Kansas City's bullpen even less than Milwaukee's. Entering this matchup, the Royals' relief pitching ranks in the bottom three of the league in xFIP.
Meanwhile, both offenses are among the top half of the league in run production. Both starting pitchers are due for massive regression, and a double implosion would bode extremely well for the over.
Speaking of which, we are catching a good price on over 8.5 at -122 via FanDuel, a line that is three-to-eight cents shorter than the rest of the market at the time of writing. Finally, the weather should give us a slight boost as well considering the forecast calls for 10+ MPH winds blowing directly out to center field.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-122 at FanDuel | Play to -130)
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