Brewers vs Yankees Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Saturday, September 9

Brewers vs Yankees Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Saturday, September 9 article feature image

Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Judge (Yankees)

Brewers vs Yankees Odds

Saturday, September 9
2:05 p.m. ET
Brewers Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-122 / +100
Yankees Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-122 / +100
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Wade Miley has been feasting on good fortune for the Milwaukee Brewers, but he will be facing one of the best hitting teams against left-handed hitting in the last couple of months: the New York Yankees. The Yankees have crushed lefties, despite struggles from the other side of the pitching rubber.

New York throws Michael King in this game, who is more of a starter than just an opener or reliever. He has thrown four and five innings in his last two outings, so this is encouraging when encountering a weaker hitting team, like Milwaukee off of righties.

Given the depth in the New York bullpen behind King, the Yankees should come out of this game victorious. However, the moneyline is a bit steep, so backing their team total is the right play here.

Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.

Milwaukee Brewers

Miley carries a 3.33 ERA but a 4.66 xERA into this start. His Average Exit Velocity and Hard Hit Rate are both great at 87.3 MPH and 31.4%, respectively. That said, he is only striking out 15.8% of batters and is walking 7.4% of them. His groundball rate is only 44.6%, and this has dropped almost 8% since last season, which is notable because he is a pitch-to-contact type of starting pitcher.

The Brewers have had their troubles at the plate all season long. In the last two weeks off of right-handed pitching, they have a 94 wRC+ and .707 OPS with a 10.7% walk rate and 22.9% strikeout rate. Since August 1, those numbers are even worse. They have an 87 wRC+ and .680 OPS with a 10.6% walk rate and 21.2% strikeout rate. Things have improved for the Brew Crew slightly. They have six batters hitting .320+ xwOBA against righties in the last two weeks and five above .320 since August 1.

In relief, the Brewers have a 3.59 xFIP collectively with a 28.2% strikeout rate and 9.2% walk rate in the last two weeks. They have four arms under a 4.00 xFIP, and these usually make up the bulk of their relief innings. Three of the four are righties, and this is notable because New York cannot hit righties.

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New York Yankees

However, with Michael King stretched out to a reasonable portion of innings, it changes the Yankees’ look on days he takes the bump. King has a 2.88 ERA against a 3.34 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is 86.4 MPH with a Hard Hit Rate of 30.7%. The kicker and major differentiator between King and Miley is that King has a 28.2% strikeout rate and a 7.7% walk rate. He also has a comparable 44.7% groundball rate. King should have a major edge in this start.

The Yankees can also crush lefties, like Miley, who is due for some negative regression since August 1. Now, in the last two weeks, they have a 99 wRC+, .715 OPS, 10.8% walk rate, and 26.9% strikeout rate off of lefties. When looking at how they have done since August 1, though, the tune changes. They hold a 149 wRC+ and .909 OPS. They do have five hitters above a .320 xwOBA. However, three of those hitters are above .400, so manufacture enough runs off of Miley before he exits.

Aaron Judge just smashed his 30th home run of the season and the 250th of his career!

— MLB (@MLB) September 2, 2023

In relief, the Yankees have a 3.74 xFIP since August 25. Five of their active relievers are under the 4.00 mark, so this is comparable to Milwaukee.

Brewers vs. Yankees

Betting Pick & Prediction

New York should get their runs while Miley pitches. Since he does not strike out many hitters, the Yankees should have plenty of looks at him. In addition, the Yankees have the third-best Hard Hit Rate and Average Exit Velocity this season, so this should somewhat negate his ability to induce weaker-than-average contact. Take the Yankees’ team total to 5 (-120).
Pick: Yankees Over 4.5 Runs | Play to 5

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