The Toronto Blue Jays host the Chicago Cubs on August 14, 2025. First pitch from Rogers Centre is scheduled for 3:07 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on MARQ.
Read our Cubs vs Blue Jays prediction and MLB over/under pick below.
My Cubs vs Blue Jays Prediction
- Cubs vs Blue Jays picks: Under 8.5 (-120, Caesars)
My Cubs vs Blue Jays best bet is Under 8.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cubs vs Blue Jays Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8.5 100o / -120u | -115 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -178 | 8.5 100o / -120u | -105 |
Cubs vs Blue Jays Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Matthew Boyd (CHC) | Stat | RHP Max Scherzer (TOR) |
|---|---|---|
| 11-5 | W-L | 2-2 |
| 3.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 2.45 / 3.28 | ERA / xERA | 4.21 / 3.62 |
| 3.13 / 3.81 | FIP / xFIP | 4.62 / 4.20 |
| 1.05 | WHIP | 1.11 |
| 17.2% | K-BB% | 20.1% |
| 40.3% | GB% | 24.4% |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 109 | Location+ | 109 |
Tony Sartori’s Cubs vs Blue Jays Preview
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview
Matthew Boyd continues to make a late push in the NL Cy Young race. Through 23 starts this season, Boyd is 11-5 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.
His underlying metrics suggest that this success will continue. Entering this matchup, the southpaw ranks in the top quarter of the league in expected ERA (xERA), walk rate and hard-hit rate.
Following Boyd is a bullpen that can close the deal. This season, Chicago’s relief corps ranks in the top half of the league in ERA.
The bad news for this pitching staff is that run support may come at a premium against Max Scherzer. Through 120 combined plate appearances against Scherzer, the current Cubs roster has a .213 batting average and a .196 expected batting average (xBA).
Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview
Scherzer’s surface-level stats suggest that he is not as dominant as he once was. However, his analytics indicate that he is still elite and that positive regression is looming.
The right-hander ranks in the 65th percentile in xERA, 77th percentile in xBA, 87th percentile in average exit velocity and 85th percentile in hard-hit rate. That positive regression is likely to come to fruition against Chicago.
Through 11 career meetings against the Cubs, Scherzer is 5-2 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.09 WHIP.
Not only is Scherzer due for positive regression, but the bullpen following him is as well. Despite some inconsistent results, Toronto’s relief corps ranks in the top half of the league in FIP, expected FIP (xFIP) and WAR.
Cubs vs Blue Jays Prediction, Betting Analysis
The main concern with the under is that both lineups are strong. However, Scherzer has fared extremely well against Chicago.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are facing a Cy Young-caliber pitcher in Boyd. Entering this game in good form, Boyd has surrendered two or fewer runs in 11 of his past 13 starts.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-120, Caesars)
Moneyline
I lean toward Chicago, but I don't want to fade Scherzer.
Run Line (Spread)
I also like Chicago to cover, but I'm staying away for the same reason listed above.
Over/Under
As mentioned, I'm betting Under 8.5.
