The Cleveland Guardians host the Cincinnati Reds on Tuesday, June 10, 2025. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FanDuel Sports Ohio.
Read our Reds vs Guardians prediction and MLB pick below.
Reds vs Guardians Prediction, Pick
- Reds vs Guardians Picks: Under 8.5; Bet to Under 8 (-110, BetMGM)
My Reds vs Guardians best bet is on the Under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians Odds
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +157 | 8.5 -106o / -115u | -104 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -193 | 8.5 -106o / -115u | -117 |
Tanner McGrath’s Reds vs Guardians Preview, Prediction
A few of our Bet Labs PRO betting systems — powered by Evan Abrams — popped for this game.
We expect pitcher-friendly weather for this game, with winds blowing cross-field, temperatures in the low 70s, and elevated humidity. These conditions are in line with two PRO systems, including Public Fades Humidity.
As written by Abrams:
This system capitalizes on an overlooked weather edge in MLB totals betting. It focuses on regular-season games where elevated humidity — ranging from 45 to 95 — intersects with moderate temperatures and neutral wind patterns. Despite assumptions that humidity boosts offense, public bettors are fading these conditions, which actually correlate with suppressed scoring in certain environments. In these spots, the home team has stayed Under in recent games, with their five-game over rate sitting below 40, suggesting low offensive rhythm. The market has subtly corrected as well, with the total dropping from open to close, and the overall percentage of bets on the over remains modest — between 6 and 29. These indicators combine to identify under-the-radar Under spots where public narratives misalign with actual scoring trends.
Additionally, the game has also activated our Weather Watch Unders system:
Also written by Abrams:
Weather Watch Unders is a system built for MLB totals bettors who understand how environmental factors quietly shift run production. This approach keys in on games with moderate to strong winds — especially those blowing in or cross-field — paired with mild to cool temperatures, a known recipe for stifled fly balls and reduced scoring. When totals open high, but tick down before first pitch, it signals sharp money reacting to these same weather cues. With home moneyline ranges excluding extreme mismatches, the model focuses on fairly priced contests where weather truly has a chance to swing scoring. Layer in the context of regular-season motivation, and this strategy captures overlooked market inefficiencies in totals inflated by prior offensive output rather than conditions on the field.
Additionally, the game has activated our Interleague Under Edge system, which targets interleague Unders between two winning teams in a game with a seven-to-10-run total.
I have no problem backing these systems and betting the Under with Reds starting pitcher Andrew Abbott on the mound.
The lefty has been highly effective across 50 innings, on pace to post career-low earned run indicators (2.18 ERA, 3.23 xERA, 3.44 FIP, 3.92 xFIP) behind a career-high strikeout minus walk rate (18.7%).
He’s in a good spot to post another solid outing against a Guardians lineup that struggles against left-handed pitching (74 wRC+).
I’m not as bullish on Guardians starting pitcher Slade Ceccioni (4.87 ERA, 7.04 xERA, 94 Stuff+), but Cleveland has a top-10 bullpen (2.5 fWAR) that’s relatively rested and should suppress Cincinnati’s league-average lineup.
Pick: Under 8.5; Bet to Under 8 (-110, BetMGM)
